Austin Peay Governors at Ole Miss Rebels: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETThe Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss

Final

#46MISSOle Miss72▲ winner

Closing lineMISS -20.5✓ APSU covered by 13.5

Closing total145.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Austin Peay and Ole Miss
APSU	This season	MISS
2-1	Record	4-0
2-1	ATS	1-3
0-3	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: APSU 64–83 MISS · ✓ MISS (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
APSU	23	42	65
MISS	31	41	72

1st half: APSU 23, MISS 31 (MISS by 8). The model had MISS by 11.2 and a total of 68.9 (actual 54).

Team stats

APSU		MISS
25-70 36%	Field goals	25-61 41%
9-33 27%	3-pointers	7-24 29%
6-7 86%	Free throws	15-21 71%
43 17 off	Rebounds	42 14 off
15	Assists	18
9	Steals	9
3	Blocks	5
12	Turnovers	11
18	Fouls	11
30	Points in paint	28
12	Fast-break points	8

Players

APSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tate McCubbin G	35	3	8	1	1-9	1-7
Zyree Collins PG	34	17	4	6	6-18	3-10
Collin Parker F	33	18	8	3	6-13	4-9
Rashaud Marshall F	28	14	6	0	6-11	0-0
Anton Brookshire PG	12	2	2	1	1-4	0-2
Bench
Matt Enright PG	16	3	3	2	1-4	1-3
Quan Lax G	14	4	1	1	2-5	0-1
Ja'Corey Robinson G	12	2	3	1	1-3	0-0
Creighton Morisch F	11	2	2	0	1-2	0-1
Hansel Enmanuel PG	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Terrell Gaines PG	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tyler Wagner G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Travis Torain F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

MISS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ilias Kamardine G	37	15	7	7	5-11	2-5
Malik Dia F	29	18	7	2	7-14	1-3
AJ Storr G	29	11	3	3	3-8	1-3
James Scott F	24	6	6	1	3-6	0-0
Kezza Giffa G	14	2	3	0	0-3	0-2
Bench
Patton Pinkins G	19	8	3	2	3-5	2-2
Travis Perry G	16	3	1	2	1-7	1-7
Eduardo Klafke G	11	4	1	0	1-2	0-1
Augusto Cassia F	11	2	1	1	1-3	0-1
Corey Chest F	10	3	2	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Hobert Grayson IV, Koren Johnson, Zach Day, Max Smith, Niko Bundalo, Tylis Jordan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MISS -20.5	MISS -18.8	APSU +1.7	W APSU covered
Total	145.5	147.1	Over 1.6	L Under
Projected score	—	APSU 64.2 · MISS 82.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MISS -11.2	MISS -8.0
1H total	68.9	54
1H projected score	APSU 28.9 · MISS 40.1	APSU 23 · MISS 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APSU WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	1-1
MISS WLLL	1-3	25%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: APSU away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
APSU UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
MISS OOOO	4-0	100%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APSUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	0-3 0%
MISSlast 4	4-0 100%	1-3 25%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Austin Peay

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AF	W 74-54	-1.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	@WYO	L 65-79	+5.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	@UNCG	W 69-63	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 74-54

+18.5

WYO

L 65-79

−8.5

UNCG

W 69-63

+7.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 74-54

−8.5

WYO

L 65-79

−9.5

UNCG

W 69-63

−13.5

over 0under 3avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ole Miss

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSELA	W 88-58	-21.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsULM	W 86-65	-37.5	L −16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 11	vsMEM	W 83-77	-9.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsCSUB	W 82-60	-23.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+8.5

ULM

W 86-65

−16.5

MEM

W 83-77

−3.5

CSUB

W 82-60

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+2.5

ULM

W 86-65

+1.5

MEM

W 83-77

+7.5

CSUB

W 82-60

+1.5

over 4under 0avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Austin Peay Governors at Ole Miss Rebels

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Austin Peay

Ole Miss

Austin Peay

Ole Miss