Indiana State Sycamores vs Alcorn State Braves: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETHulman Center · Neutral site

#207INSTIndiana St74final

Final

#360ALCNAlcorn St81▲ winner

Closing lineINST -12.5✓ ALCN covered by 19.5

Closing total152.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Indiana St and Alcorn St
INST	This season	ALCN
3-3	Record	0-7
4-2	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: INST 82–70 ALCN · ✗ INST (86%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
INST	16	58	74
ALCN	36	45	81

1st half: INST 16, ALCN 36 (ALCN by 20). The model had INST by 7.8 and a total of 71.0 (actual 52).

Team stats

INST		ALCN
24-64 38%	Field goals	32-63 51%
6-29 21%	3-pointers	6-20 30%
20-25 80%	Free throws	11-18 61%
33 12 off	Rebounds	43 13 off
15	Assists	8
15	Steals	13
3	Blocks	4
17	Turnovers	20
15	Fouls	18
36	Points in paint	40
21	Fast-break points	19

Players

INST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sterling Young G	35	18	3	2	5-14	1-7
Ian Scott F	33	12	4	3	3-6	1-2
Camp Wagner G	32	14	5	2	4-12	2-9
Markus Harding C	27	8	5	1	4-12	0-3
Xavier Hall G	24	12	2	3	4-8	0-2
Bench
Jo Van Buggenhout G	24	6	0	2	2-7	2-5
Enel St. Bernard F	18	2	5	1	1-2	0-0
Bruno Alocen G	7	2	1	1	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Caden Huttenlocker, Jayan Walker, Derek Vorst, Cooper Bean, Hunter Harding, Sivert Waerstad Nordheim, Zyair Greene, Martin Kaupanger

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jameel Morris G	34	18	5	1	7-13	2-4
Tycen McDaniels F	33	12	10	1	4-10	0-1
Nick Woodard SF	33	8	9	3	4-9	0-3
Omari Hamilton F	23	8	6	0	3-7	1-3
Shane Lancaster G	19	13	0	0	5-8	1-4
Bench
Davian Williams PG	26	14	4	2	6-8	2-3
Mike Jones SG	12	3	4	1	1-4	0-1
Travis Roberts SG	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jeremy Ellis PF	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bryson Calamese PG	5	3	1	0	1-2	0-0
William Henderson F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ray Glasgow, Alex Hawkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	INST -12.5	INST -12.6	INST +0.1	L ALCN covered
Total	152.5	151.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	INST 82.1 · ALCN 69.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	INST -7.8	ALCN -20.0
1H total	71.0	52
1H projected score	INST 39.4 · ALCN 31.6	INST 16 · ALCN 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
INST WLWWW	4-2	67%	—	2-0
ALCN LWLWW	4-3	57%	—	4-3

Venue/role: INST neutral site, as favorite; ALCN neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
INST UUUUO	2-4	33%	3-3
ALCN UOUOU	4-3	57%	0-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INSTlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
ALCNlast 7	0-7 0%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Indiana St

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −14.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 2under 4avg −14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alcorn St

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

O O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

over 4under 3avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Indiana State Sycamores vs Alcorn State Braves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Indiana St

Alcorn St

Indiana St

Alcorn St