Ball State Cardinals at Indiana State Sycamores: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ETHulman Center · at Indiana St

#181BALLBall State52final

Final

#207INSTIndiana St70▲ winner

Closing lineINST -7.5✓ INST covered by 10.5

Closing total154.5Under by 32.5

Season records: Ball State and Indiana St
BALL	This season	INST
1-2	Record	2-2
1-2	ATS	2-2
0-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BALL 71–80 INST · ✓ INST (77%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BALL	28	24	52
INST	27	43	70

1st half: BALL 28, INST 27 (BALL by 1). The model had INST by 5.0 and a total of 70.5 (actual 55).

Team stats

BALL		INST
22-65 34%	Field goals	27-58 47%
4-20 20%	3-pointers	7-26 27%
4-5 80%	Free throws	9-9 100%
35 15 off	Rebounds	40 11 off
6	Assists	17
6	Steals	5
2	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	13
12	Fouls	12
30	Points in paint	38
2	Fast-break points	11

Players

BALL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Armoni Zeigler G	32	9	3	3	4-10	1-2
Mason Jones F	32	7	3	0	3-5	1-3
Devon Barnes G	28	14	1	2	5-14	0-4
Kayden Fish F	23	4	7	0	2-10	0-1
Elmore James IV G	21	6	0	0	2-6	2-3
Bench
Davion Hill G	23	6	5	1	3-8	0-1
Cam Denson F	22	4	9	0	2-6	0-1
Juwan Maxey G	16	2	1	0	1-6	0-5
Preston Copeland F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alex Farley, Easton Foster, Kody Clancy, Jai Anthoni Bearden, Joey Hart, Zane Doughty

INST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ian Scott F	32	10	10	4	4-9	0-0
Markus Harding C	31	15	4	4	7-10	1-3
Xavier Hall G	29	9	1	4	2-4	0-1
Camp Wagner G	26	0	7	1	0-7	0-6
Sterling Young G	13	3	0	1	1-4	1-3
Bench
Jo Van Buggenhout G	27	15	0	3	5-7	3-5
Bruno Alocen G	24	10	5	0	4-8	2-6
Enel St. Bernard F	14	8	11	0	4-8	0-1
Jayan Walker F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Caden Huttenlocker, Martin Kaupanger, Sivert Waerstad Nordheim, Derek Vorst, Cooper Bean, Hunter Harding, Zyair Greene

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	INST -7.5	INST -8.6	INST +1.1	W INST covered
Total	154.5	150.5	Under 4.0	W Under
Projected score	—	BALL 70.9 · INST 79.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	INST -5.0	BALL -1.0
1H total	70.5	55
1H projected score	BALL 32.7 · INST 37.8	BALL 28 · INST 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
INST LWLW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; INST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
INST OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALLlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%
INSTlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BALL 1–3 INSTINST leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · INST has won the last 3 meetings · BALL 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	INST 94 @ BALL 84	BALL -5.5	INST W
Dec 16, 2023-24	INST 83 vs BALL 72	BALL +15.5	BALL W
Nov 12, 2022-23	BALL 71 @ INST 83	INST -7.5	INST W
Nov 27, 2021-22	INST 75 @ BALL 97	BALL +1	BALL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ball State

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

over 0under 3avg −11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana St

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −15.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

over 1under 3avg −15.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ball State Cardinals at Indiana State Sycamores

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Ball State

Indiana St

Ball State

Indiana St