Milwaukee Panthers at Wichita State Shockers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ETCharles Koch Arena · at Wichita St

#235MILWMilwaukee58final

Final

#77WICHWichita St75▲ winner

Closing lineWICH -10.5✓ WICH covered by 6.5

Closing total158.5Under by 25.5

Season records: Milwaukee and Wichita St
MILW	This season	WICH
2-3	Record	3-1
2-3	ATS	4-0
4-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MILW 73–85 WICH · ✓ WICH (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MILW	30	28	58
WICH	28	47	75

1st half: MILW 30, WICH 28 (MILW by 2). The model had WICH by 6.8 and a total of 74.2 (actual 58).

Team stats

MILW		WICH
21-59 36%	Field goals	25-60 42%
6-23 26%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
10-16 63%	Free throws	19-28 68%
36 11 off	Rebounds	45 14 off
9	Assists	10
4	Steals	5
4	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	8
20	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	34
4	Fast-break points	4

Players

MILW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Seth Hubbard G	35	10	0	5	5-13	0-3
Danilo Jovanovich F	31	12	4	2	3-6	0-0
Faizon Fields F	25	5	8	0	1-3	0-0
Amar Augillard G	23	9	4	0	3-9	3-8
Esyah Pippa-White G	21	1	3	0	0-4	0-2
Bench
Stevie Elam G	17	8	1	0	3-7	2-5
Isaiah Dorceus G	15	3	1	1	1-3	1-2
Aaron Franklin G	11	2	7	0	1-2	0-1
Sekou Konneh F	11	6	5	0	3-7	0-0
Josh Dixon G	8	2	1	1	1-4	0-2
Simeon Murchison F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Austin Villarreal, John Lovelace Jr., Ned Renfree, Chandler Jackson, Tate Mackenzie

WICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Karon Boyd F	37	12	5	1	6-8	0-0
Kenyon Giles G	37	24	4	2	7-13	4-7
TJ Williams G	30	15	8	1	5-13	0-1
Michael Gray Jr. G	29	8	5	2	3-7	2-4
William Berg C	21	5	8	1	0-5	0-0
Bench
Emmanuel Okorafor F	19	11	8	0	4-7	0-0
Dre Kindell G	14	0	1	3	0-3	0-3
Jaret Valencia F	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Dillon Battie F	5	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Brian Amuneke G	2	0	1	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Joy Ighovodja, Tyrus Rathan-Mayes, Henry Thengvall, Pierre Couisnard, Noah Hill

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WICH -10.5	WICH -11.6	WICH +1.1	W WICH covered
Total	158.5	158.3	Under 0.2	W Under
Projected score	—	MILW 73.4 · WICH 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WICH -6.8	MILW -2.0
1H total	74.2	58
1H projected score	MILW 33.7 · WICH 40.5	MILW 30 · WICH 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-1
WICH WWWW	4-0	100%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: MILW away, as underdog; WICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOOOU	4-1	80%	2-3
WICH UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILWlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
WICHlast 4	3-1 75%	4-0 100%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

over 4under 1avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wichita St

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

4-0

100% covers · avg +13.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

over 2under 2avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee Panthers at Wichita State Shockers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

Wichita St

Milwaukee

Wichita St