Little Rock Trojans at Ball State Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 7:00 PM ETWorthen Arena · at Ball State

#222LRLittle Rock68▲ winner

Final

#181BALLBall State62final

Closing lineBALL -2.5✓ LR covered by 8.5

Closing total146.5Under by 16.5

Season records: Little Rock and Ball State
LR	This season	BALL
0-2	Record	1-1
0-2	ATS	1-1
1-1	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LR 68–75 BALL · ✗ BALL (74%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LR	37	31	68
BALL	35	27	62

1st half: LR 37, BALL 35 (LR by 2). The model had BALL by 4.3 and a total of 66.8 (actual 72).

Team stats

LR		BALL
28-51 55%	Field goals	21-47 45%
7-12 58%	3-pointers	7-21 33%
5-11 45%	Free throws	13-19 68%
36 12 off	Rebounds	18 4 off
14	Assists	14
8	Steals	10
4	Blocks	2
23	Turnovers	15
17	Fouls	14
36	Points in paint	24
11	Fast-break points	9

Players

LR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braxton Bayless G	38	17	5	1	7-10	3-3
Johnathan Lawson G	37	14	6	6	5-13	2-5
Tuongthach Gatkek F	35	7	6	4	2-4	0-0
Terrion Burgess F	27	5	3	1	2-2	1-1
Kachi Nzeh F	13	2	6	1	1-4	0-2
Bench
Cameron Wallace F	28	20	4	0	10-14	0-0
Truman Claytor IV F	17	3	2	0	1-3	1-1
Christian Hughes G	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Caleb Pennyfeather F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Joseph Thomas, KK Robinson, Khasen Robinson, Travonne Jackson, Kellen Robinson, Tracy Steele Jr.

BALL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Armoni Zeigler G	38	15	5	3	6-10	2-5
Mason Jones F	34	2	4	4	1-3	0-1
Elmore James IV G	25	7	1	1	2-5	1-2
Devon Barnes G	18	7	0	1	2-7	1-3
Kayden Fish F	11	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Cam Denson F	30	10	2	1	4-6	0-0
Davion Hill G	26	11	3	3	3-9	2-6
Juwan Maxey G	16	8	1	1	2-5	1-4
Preston Copeland F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alex Farley, Easton Foster, Kody Clancy, Jai Anthoni Bearden, Joey Hart, Zane Doughty

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BALL -2.5	BALL -7.3	BALL +4.8	L LR covered
Total	146.5	142.5	Under 4.0	W Under
Projected score	—	LR 67.6 · BALL 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BALL -4.3	LR -2.0
1H total	66.8	72
1H projected score	LR 31.3 · BALL 35.5	LR 37 · BALL 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LR LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2
BALL WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LR away, as underdog; BALL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LR OU	1-1	50%	0-2
BALL UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LRlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
BALLlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LR 1–0 BALLLR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LR 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 28, 2023-24	BALL 64 @ LR 90	LR -1.5	LR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Little Rock

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −17.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@MILW	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@MARQ	L 49-89	+21.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

−16.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−18.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −17.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

+7.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−17.5

over 1under 1avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ball State

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

over 0under 2avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Little Rock @ Ball State

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Little Rock

Ball State

Little Rock

Ball State