San Francisco Dons vs Nevada Wolf Pack: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

Final

#96NEVNevada81▲ winner

Closing lineSF -5.5✓ NEV covered by 21.5

Closing total142.5Over by 3.5

Season records: San Francisco and Nevada
SF	This season	NEV
4-2	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	2-5
2-4	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SF 74–72 NEV · ✗ SF (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SF	37	28	65
NEV	38	43	81

1st half: SF 37, NEV 38 (NEV by 1). The model had SF by 1.4 and a total of 68.6 (actual 75).

Team stats

SF		NEV
19-49 39%	Field goals	30-63 48%
7-23 30%	3-pointers	7-14 50%
20-25 80%	Free throws	14-18 78%
34 12 off	Rebounds	29 11 off
14	Assists	19
2	Steals	6
3	Blocks	2
15	Turnovers	4
18	Fouls	18
20	Points in paint	38
2	Fast-break points	4

Players

SF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Beasley G	31	3	1	4	0-6	0-5
Vukasin Masic G	24	8	3	1	3-7	2-5
Tyrone Riley IV G	24	9	3	0	3-7	1-3
Junjie Wang F	20	10	3	1	2-7	1-5
Guillermo Diaz-Graham F	14	5	4	1	2-3	1-2
Bench
Mookie Cook F	27	12	2	3	4-10	2-2
David Fuchs F	24	16	9	0	4-7	0-0
Legend Smiley G	14	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Veniamin Abosi F	10	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Weilun Zhao G	6	0	1	3	0-0	0-0
Saba Gigiberia C	3	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Aidan Braccia G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Sean Blakely Drummond, Ndewedo Newbury, Isa Silva

NEV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Camper Jr. G	33	22	3	6	7-14	2-4
Elijah Price F	28	11	1	2	3-6	0-0
Tayshawn Comer G	23	6	1	4	2-9	0-2
Chuck Bailey III G	22	5	0	1	2-6	1-2
Kaleb Lowery F	7	3	3	0	1-2	1-2
Bench
Vaughn Weems G	24	6	4	2	3-6	0-0
Peyton White G	22	10	3	1	4-10	2-2
Ethan Croley F	18	11	10	0	5-7	0-1
Myles Walker G	16	7	0	3	3-3	1-1
Amire Robinson G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jeriah Coleman C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Christopher Baudreau, Joel Armotrading, Tyler Rolison

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SF -5.5	SF -2.0	NEV +3.5	W NEV covered
Total	142.5	146.5	Over 4.0	W Over
Projected score	—	SF 74.3 · NEV 72.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SF -1.4	NEV -1.0
1H total	68.6	75
1H projected score	SF 35 · NEV 33.6	SF 37 · NEV 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SF LWWWL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-2
NEV LLLWL	2-5	29%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: SF neutral site, as favorite; NEV neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UUOOU	2-4	33%	4-2
NEV OOOUO	5-2	71%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
NEVlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SF 1–0 NEVSF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SF 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2021-22	NEV 70 @ SF 73	SF -6.5	NEV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San Francisco

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsMINN	W 77-65	+1.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsCOLO	L 69-79	-1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

MINN

W 77-65

+13.5

COLO

L 69-79

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

MINN

W 77-65

+1.5

COLO

L 69-79

−2.5

over 2under 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nevada

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −4.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

over 5under 2avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San Francisco Dons vs Nevada Wolf Pack

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

San Francisco

Nevada

San Francisco

Nevada