Nevada Wolf Pack at Santa Clara Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 7:00 PM ETLeavey Center · at Santa Clara

#96NEVNevada83final

Final

#106SCUSanta Clara98▲ winner

Closing lineSCU -6.5✓ SCU covered by 8.5

Closing total144.5Over by 36.5

Season records: Nevada and Santa Clara
NEV	This season	SCU
3-0	Record	2-0
1-2	ATS	2-0
2-1	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NEV 74–78 SCU · ✓ SCU (65%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NEV	34	49	83
SCU	48	50	98

1st half: NEV 34, SCU 48 (SCU by 14). The model had SCU by 2.6 and a total of 71.2 (actual 82).

Team stats

NEV		SCU
26-58 45%	Field goals	38-61 62%
7-14 50%	3-pointers	12-25 48%
24-28 86%	Free throws	10-16 63%
29 12 off	Rebounds	31 10 off
17	Assists	27
7	Steals	8
2	Blocks	11
12	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	23
24	Points in paint	40
10	Fast-break points	18

Players

NEV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tayshawn Comer G	31	19	1	3	7-9	2-3
Corey Camper Jr. G	28	21	4	1	7-15	3-5
Joel Armotrading C	27	7	2	2	2-5	0-0
Tyler Rolison G	26	6	3	4	1-6	1-3
Elijah Price F	25	9	4	3	1-3	0-0
Bench
Chuck Bailey III G	27	11	6	3	4-11	1-2
Peyton White G	15	6	2	1	3-5	0-0
Kaleb Lowery F	8	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Amire Robinson G	8	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Myles Walker G	3	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jeriah Coleman C	2	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ethan Croley, Christopher Baudreau, Vaughn Weems

SCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Mahi F	33	10	3	6	4-5	1-2
Christian Hammond G	31	27	2	2	11-17	2-5
Jake Ensminger G	28	5	10	6	2-4	1-2
Brenton Knapper G	26	13	2	3	5-11	2-7
Bukky Oboye C	19	22	2	1	8-10	2-2
Bench
Thierry Darlan G	19	6	4	0	2-4	2-3
Allen Graves F	19	4	2	4	2-4	0-0
Sash Gavalyugov G	14	6	0	3	2-3	1-2
KJ Cochran G	9	5	1	1	2-3	1-2
Francis Chukwudebelu C	2	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brendan Yarusso, Noah Badibanga, Brad Longcor III, Juan Reyna, Chris Tadjo, Gehrig Normand, Malachi Douyon

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SCU -6.5	SCU -4.5	NEV +2.0	L SCU covered
Total	144.5	152.0	Over 7.5	W Over
Projected score	—	NEV 73.8 · SCU 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCU -2.6	SCU -14.0
1H total	71.2	82
1H projected score	NEV 34.3 · SCU 36.9	NEV 34 · SCU 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WLL	1-2	33%	—	—
SCU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; SCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
SCU UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEVlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
SCUlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NEV 1–1 SCUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · NEV 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	SCU 59 @ NEV 85	NEV -7.5	NEV W
Nov 16, 2021-22	NEV 74 @ SCU 96	SCU +2	SCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nevada

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

over 2under 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Clara

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +14 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

over 0under 2avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Santa Clara Broncos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Nevada

Santa Clara

Nevada

Santa Clara