UC Santa Barbara Gauchos at Nevada Wolf Pack: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 5:00 PM ETLawlor Events Center · at Nevada

Final

#96NEVNevada77▲ winner

Closing lineNEV -5.5✓ NEV covered by 7.5

Closing total147.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Santa Barbara and Nevada
UCSB	This season	NEV
2-1	Record	3-2
1-2	ATS	1-4
3-0	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCSB 74–82 NEV · ✓ NEV (76%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCSB	28	36	64
NEV	32	45	77

1st half: UCSB 28, NEV 32 (NEV by 4). The model had NEV by 4.7 and a total of 72.7 (actual 60).

Team stats

UCSB		NEV
21-52 40%	Field goals	23-48 48%
7-24 29%	3-pointers	5-15 33%
15-23 65%	Free throws	26-30 87%
30 10 off	Rebounds	35 7 off
11	Assists	14
6	Steals	11
4	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	13
20	Fouls	20
24	Points in paint	30
6	Fast-break points	26

Players

UCSB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Miro Little G	35	13	6	4	3-6	2-4
Aidan Mahaney G	31	10	2	4	4-16	2-8
Colin Smith F	25	6	3	0	1-8	1-6
Jason Fontenet II G	21	4	4	1	1-2	0-0
Hosana Kitenge F	18	12	0	1	5-7	0-0
Bench
Zion Sensley G	19	7	3	0	3-7	1-3
CJ Shaw G	16	4	4	1	1-1	0-0
Evans Kipruto C	13	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Marvin McGhee IV G	13	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Michael Simcoe F	9	3	1	0	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Luke Zuffelato, John Simcoe, ZZ Clark, Bryce Bedgood, Isaac Shingange, Koat Keat Tong, Kyle Haughy

NEV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Camper Jr. G	32	27	2	3	9-14	4-7
Elijah Price F	30	14	8	0	4-6	0-2
Tayshawn Comer G	29	14	2	3	5-14	1-4
Joel Armotrading C	28	2	3	0	0-1	0-0
Chuck Bailey III G	24	8	7	4	3-5	0-0
Bench
Tyler Rolison G	15	4	3	2	0-1	0-0
Vaughn Weems G	12	2	2	1	0-2	0-0
Kaleb Lowery F	10	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Peyton White G	6	2	0	0	1-3	0-1
Myles Walker G	6	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Amire Robinson G	4	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Ethan Croley F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jeriah Coleman C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Christopher Baudreau

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NEV -5.5	NEV -8.1	NEV +2.6	W NEV covered
Total	147.5	155.3	Over 7.8	L Under
Projected score	—	UCSB 73.6 · NEV 81.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -4.7	NEV -4.0
1H total	72.7	60
1H projected score	UCSB 34 · NEV 38.7	UCSB 28 · NEV 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCSB WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	—
NEV WLLLL	1-4	20%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: UCSB away, as underdog; NEV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCSB OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
NEV UOOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCSBlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%
NEVlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Santa Barbara

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +12.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSJSU	W 85-74	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 11	@SAC	W 92-87	-7.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsLMU	L 74-78	-3.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+1.5

SAC

W 92-87

−2.5

LMU

L 74-78

−7.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+12.5

SAC

W 92-87

+17.5

LMU

L 74-78

+6.5

over 3under 0avg +12.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nevada

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +11.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

over 4under 1avg +11.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos at Nevada Wolf Pack

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Santa Barbara

Nevada

Santa Barbara

Nevada