San José State Spartans at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 8, 4:00 PM ETThe Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara

Final

#134UCSBSanta Barbara85▲ winner

Closing lineUCSB -9.5✓ UCSB covered by 1.5

Closing total146.5Over by 12.5

Season records: San José St and Santa Barbara
SJSU	This season	UCSB
0-1	Record	0-0
1-0	ATS	0-0
1-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SJSU 74–74 UCSB · ✗ SJSU (51%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SJSU	28	46	74
UCSB	45	40	85

1st half: SJSU 28, UCSB 45 (UCSB by 17). The model had SJSU by 0.4 and a total of 69.2 (actual 73).

Team stats

SJSU		UCSB
26-50 52%	Field goals	30-52 58%
5-17 29%	3-pointers	11-22 50%
17-21 81%	Free throws	14-19 74%
25 11 off	Rebounds	24 10 off
6	Assists	19
6	Steals	6
1	Blocks	1
14	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	20
26	Points in paint	30
2	Fast-break points	12

Players

SJSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jermaine Washington G	39	9	2	1	3-11	1-7
Ben Roseborough G	37	12	4	0	4-9	3-5
Colby Garland G	33	30	3	4	11-13	0-0
Sadraque NgaNga F	19	6	4	0	2-4	0-0
Adrian Myers G	16	0	1	1	0-3	0-2
Bench
Melvin Bell Jr. G	24	12	5	0	4-5	0-1
Yaphet Moundi F	17	2	4	0	1-3	0-0
Pasha Goodarzi G	10	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Douglas Langford F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Japhet Moupadele, Eren Karakaya, Damase Coly, Marcus Overstreet, Jaden Goodall, Christian Wise, JaVaughn Hannah

UCSB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aidan Mahaney G	37	17	0	6	6-12	5-9
Miro Little G	35	11	8	6	4-7	1-3
Colin Smith F	33	24	2	2	8-11	4-6
Jason Fontenet II G	26	4	1	1	1-2	0-1
Hosana Kitenge F	22	10	3	1	3-8	0-0
Bench
CJ Shaw G	16	9	1	2	4-6	1-2
Zion Sensley G	15	4	2	0	1-2	0-1
Michael Simcoe F	12	4	2	1	2-3	0-0
Evans Kipruto C	4	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Kyle Haughy, John Simcoe, Luke Zuffelato, ZZ Clark, Bryce Bedgood, Marvin McGhee IV, Koat Keat Tong, Isaac Shingange

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCSB -9.5	SJSU -0.4	SJSU +9.9	L UCSB covered
Total	146.5	147.7	Over 1.2	W Over
Projected score	—	SJSU 74 · UCSB 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJSU -0.4	UCSB -17.0
1H total	69.2	73
1H projected score	SJSU 34.8 · UCSB 34.4	SJSU 28 · UCSB 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2024-25 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2024-25 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU LWWWW	23-10	70%	7-5	15-7
UCSB LLLWL	13-19	41%	7-8	9-13

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; UCSB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2024-25 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU UOUUO	20-13	61%	13-20
UCSB OOUUU	14-18	44%	19-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2024-25

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UCSB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SJSU 0–1 UCSBUCSB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SJSU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 17, 2024-25	UCSB 64 @ SJSU 59	SJSU +6.5	SJSU W

ATS History · 2024-25

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San José St

33 games played

Straight up

13-20

39% wins

Against the spread

23-10

70% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-2039%

L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W W L W L W W L L L L W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

23-1070%

L L L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W L L W L L W L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1361%

U O O U O U U O O O O O U O O U U O U O O O U O U O O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsWIU	L 55-59	-10.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsPAC	L 67-80	-1.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 147
Nov 10	@HAW	L 69-80	+3.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 149
Nov 17	vsUCSB	L 59-64	+6.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 20	@USC	L 68-82	+17.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 25	vsUTEP	W 71-65	+4.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 26	vsUNCG	W 69-64	+4.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 133
Nov 27	vsLBSU	W 82-66	-7.5	W +8.5	125.5	O 148
Dec 4	@UNM	L 77-83	+19.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 160
Dec 14	vsCP	W 107-100	-5.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 207
Dec 21	vsKENN	W 89-65	-3.5	W +20.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 28	vsBOIS	L 71-73	+8.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 144
Dec 31	vsCSU	L 50-72	+3.5	L −18.5	140.5	U 122
Jan 4	@UNLV	L 73-79	+10.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 7	vsUSU	L 78-85	+9.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 11	@AF	W 69-62	-2.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 131
Jan 14	vsUNM	W 71-70	+9.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 141
Jan 18	@NEV	L 64-75	+13.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 139
Jan 25	vsWYO	W 67-58	-3.5	W +5.5	133.5	U 125
Jan 28	@SDSU	L 68-71	+13.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 139
Feb 1	vsAF	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 139
Feb 4	@FRES	W 94-91	-3.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 185
Feb 7	@BOIS	L 52-79	+13.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsSDSU	L 66-69	+9.5	W +6.5	132.5	O 135
Feb 14	vsNEV	L 58-73	+7.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 131
Feb 19	@USU	L 57-105	+17.5	L −30.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 22	@WYO	W 82-73	+5.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 25	vsUNLV	L 71-77	+2.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 148
Mar 4	@CSU	L 56-83	+16.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 8	vsFRES	W 92-68	-6.5	W +17.5	143.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsWYO	W 66-61	-0.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 127
Mar 13	vsUNM	L 52-63	+15.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 115
Mar 19	vsLUC	L 70-73	+3.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIU

L 55-59

−14.5

PAC

L 67-80

−14.5

HAW

L 69-80

−7.5

UCSB

L 59-64

+1.5

USC

L 68-82

+3.5

UTEP

W 71-65

+10.5

UNCG

W 69-64

+9.5

LBSU

W 82-66

+8.5

UNM

L 77-83

+13.5

W 107-100

+1.5

KENN

W 89-65

+20.5

BOIS

L 71-73

+6.5

CSU

L 50-72

−18.5

UNLV

L 73-79

+4.5

USU

L 78-85

+2.5

W 69-62

+4.5

UNM

W 71-70

+10.5

NEV

L 64-75

+2.5

WYO

W 67-58

+5.5

SDSU

L 68-71

+10.5

W 75-64

+1.5

FRES

W 94-91

−0.5

BOIS

L 52-79

−13.5

SDSU

L 66-69

+6.5

NEV

L 58-73

−7.5

USU

L 57-105

−30.5

WYO

W 82-73

+14.5

UNLV

L 71-77

−3.5

CSU

L 56-83

−10.5

FRES

W 92-68

+17.5

WYO

W 66-61

+4.5

UNM

L 52-63

+4.5

LUC

L 70-73

+0.5

covered 23didn’t cover 10avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIU

L 55-59

−20.5

PAC

L 67-80

+3.5

HAW

L 69-80

+15.5

UCSB

L 59-64

−21.5

USC

L 68-82

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-65

−0.5

UNCG

W 69-64

−2.5

LBSU

W 82-66

+22.5

UNM

L 77-83

+9.5

W 107-100

+52.5

KENN

W 89-65

+1.5

BOIS

L 71-73

+1.5

CSU

L 50-72

−18.5

UNLV

L 73-79

+10.5

USU

L 78-85

+14.5

W 69-62

−4.5

UNM

W 71-70

−12.5

NEV

L 64-75

+1.5

WYO

W 67-58

−8.5

SDSU

L 68-71

+2.5

W 75-64

+2.5

FRES

W 94-91

+37.5

BOIS

L 52-79

−10.5

SDSU

L 66-69

+2.5

NEV

L 58-73

−5.5

USU

L 57-105

+13.5

WYO

W 82-73

+19.5

UNLV

L 71-77

+10.5

CSU

L 56-83

−3.5

FRES

W 92-68

+16.5

WYO

W 66-61

−8.5

UNM

L 52-63

−35.5

LUC

L 70-73

+0.5

over 20under 13avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Barbara

32 games played

Straight up

19-13

59% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1359%

W W W L W W L L W L L W W W W L L W L W W W L L W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

W L L L W W L L W W L W W L L L L L L W W L W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U O U O U U O U U U U U O U U U O O O O O O U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@PORT	W 94-53	-7.5	W +33.5	149.5	U 147
Nov 13	vsFRES	W 91-86	-12.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 177
Nov 17	@SJSU	W 64-59	-6.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 20	vsUTEP	L 76-79	-5.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 155
Nov 26	vsEWU	W 67-51	-10.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 118
Nov 29	vsMVSU	W 81-48	-31.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 129
Dec 5	vsUCSD	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 160
Dec 7	@UCD	L 60-71	-2.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 14	vsGB	W 83-66	-13.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 149
Dec 18	@LMU	L 58-60	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 118
Dec 22	@MOST	L 56-68	+0.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 124
Jan 2	@HAW	W 64-61	+2.5	W +5.5	133.5	U 125
Jan 9	vsCSUB	W 78-66	-7.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 11	@CP	W 75-72	-4.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 147
Jan 16	vsUCR	W 66-63	-6.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 129
Jan 18	vsUCD	L 60-64	-8.5	L −12.5	136.5	U 124
Jan 23	@UCSD	L 63-77	+9.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 140
Jan 25	@CSUF	W 83-75	-8.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 158
Jan 30	vsCSUN	L 71-78	-2.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 1	vsLBSU	W 85-54	-7.5	W +23.5	136.5	O 139
Feb 6	@CSUB	W 81-75	-3.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 156
Feb 8	vsHAW	W 76-72	-5.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 13	@UCI	L 60-62	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 122
Feb 15	@UCR	L 69-81	+0.5	L −11.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 20	vsCSUF	W 86-56	-14.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 22	@LBSU	W 58-56	-7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 114
Feb 27	vsCP	W 96-77	-6.5	W +12.5	158.5	O 173
Mar 1	@CSUN	L 77-103	+4.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 180
Mar 8	vsUCI	L 88-97	+3.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 185
Mar 12	vsCSUB	W 71-66	-5.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 137
Mar 13	vsCSUN	W 78-72	+3.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 14	vsUCSD	L 51-69	+11.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PORT

W 94-53

+33.5

FRES

W 91-86

−7.5

SJSU

W 64-59

−1.5

UTEP

L 76-79

−8.5

EWU

W 67-51

+5.5

MVSU

W 81-48

+1.5

UCSD

L 76-84

−10.5

UCD

L 60-71

−13.5

W 83-66

+3.5

LMU

L 58-60

+0.5

MOST

L 56-68

−11.5

HAW

W 64-61

+5.5

CSUB

W 78-66

+4.5

W 75-72

−1.5

UCR

W 66-63

−3.5

UCD

L 60-64

−12.5

UCSD

L 63-77

−4.5

CSUF

W 83-75

−0.5

CSUN

L 71-78

−9.5

LBSU

W 85-54

+23.5

CSUB

W 81-75

+2.5

HAW

W 76-72

−1.5

UCI

L 60-62

+6.5

UCR

L 69-81

−11.5

CSUF

W 86-56

+15.5

LBSU

W 58-56

−5.5

W 96-77

+12.5

CSUN

L 77-103

−21.5

UCI

L 88-97

−5.5

CSUB

W 71-66

−0.5

CSUN

W 78-72

+9.5

UCSD

L 51-69

−6.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PORT

W 94-53

−2.5

FRES

W 91-86

+25.5

SJSU

W 64-59

−21.5

UTEP

L 76-79

+9.5

EWU

W 67-51

−32.5

MVSU

W 81-48

−5.5

UCSD

L 76-84

+18.5

UCD

L 60-71

−13.5

W 83-66

−3.5

LMU

L 58-60

−23.5

MOST

L 56-68

−13.5

HAW

W 64-61

−8.5

CSUB

W 78-66

+7.5

W 75-72

−10.5

UCR

W 66-63

−11.5

UCD

L 60-64

−12.5

UCSD

L 63-77

+2.5

CSUF

W 83-75

+16.5

CSUN

L 71-78

+1.5

LBSU

W 85-54

+2.5

CSUB

W 81-75

+14.5

HAW

W 76-72

+10.5

UCI

L 60-62

−19.5

UCR

L 69-81

+6.5

CSUF

W 86-56

−2.5

LBSU

W 58-56

−24.5

W 96-77

+14.5

CSUN

L 77-103

+31.5

UCI

L 88-97

+44.5

CSUB

W 71-66

−5.5

CSUN

W 78-72

−1.5

UCSD

L 51-69

−18.5

over 14under 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San José State Spartans at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2024-25

San José St

Santa Barbara

San José St

Santa Barbara