Loyola Marymount Lions at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 9:00 PM ETThe Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara

#121LMULMU78▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUCSB -3.5✓ LMU covered by 7.5

Closing total145.5Over by 6.5

Season records: LMU and Santa Barbara
LMU	This season	UCSB
4-0	Record	2-0
3-1	ATS	1-1
1-3	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LMU 73–73 UCSB · ✓ LMU (53%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
LMU	31	38	9	78
UCSB	40	29	5	74

1st half: LMU 31, UCSB 40 (UCSB by 9). The model had LMU by 0.7 and a total of 68.3 (actual 71).

Team stats

LMU		UCSB
26-60 43%	Field goals	27-71 38%
11-25 44%	3-pointers	8-28 29%
15-29 52%	Free throws	12-17 71%
46 13 off	Rebounds	41 12 off
14	Assists	14
1	Steals	5
6	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	6
18	Fouls	22
30	Points in paint	38
4	Fast-break points	5

Players

LMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jalen Shelley F	43	24	6	1	8-18	2-7
Aaron McBride F	40	4	14	1	2-4	0-1
Rodney Brown Jr. G	32	10	0	6	2-5	2-5
AJ Thomas G	20	5	4	3	1-7	0-0
Rick Issanza C	12	2	5	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Myron Amey Jr. G	37	29	5	1	11-19	6-7
Rokas Jocius F	23	0	3	0	0-2	0-1
Josh Dalton F	8	3	1	1	1-3	1-3
Nakyel Shelton G	7	1	0	1	0-1	0-1
Jael Martin F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cooper Smith, Marley Zeller, George Tupy, Kevin Carney, Jan Vide, Tanner Thomas

UCSB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aidan Mahaney G	40	17	1	4	6-16	3-9
Miro Little G	39	19	7	2	8-16	0-3
Colin Smith F	36	18	3	1	6-13	4-7
Jason Fontenet II G	35	5	8	2	1-7	0-3
Hosana Kitenge F	25	2	7	2	1-9	0-1
Bench
Zion Sensley G	19	5	8	0	2-5	1-3
Michael Simcoe F	16	6	3	2	3-5	0-2
CJ Shaw G	11	2	2	0	0-0	0-0
Evans Kipruto C	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Marvin McGhee IV G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luke Zuffelato, John Simcoe, Kyle Haughy, ZZ Clark, Bryce Bedgood, Isaac Shingange, Koat Keat Tong

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCSB -3.5	LMU -0.8	LMU +4.3	W LMU covered
Total	145.5	145.9	Over 0.4	W Over
Projected score	—	LMU 73.3 · UCSB 72.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LMU -0.7	UCSB -9.0
1H total	68.3	71
1H projected score	LMU 34.5 · UCSB 33.8	LMU 31 · UCSB 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LMU LWWW	3-1	75%	1-0	1-0
UCSB WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: LMU away, as underdog; UCSB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LMU UOUU	1-3	25%	4-0
UCSB OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LMUlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%
UCSBlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LMU 1–1 UCSBSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · LMU 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 18, 2024-25	UCSB 58 @ LMU 60	LMU -2.5	UCSB W
Dec 16, 2023-24	UCSB 68 vs LMU 59	LMU -3.5	UCSB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LMU

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsEWU	W 70-62	-9.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsUAPB	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@UTEP	W 71-58	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 14	vsTROY	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−1.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+2.5

UTEP

W 71-58

+14.5

TROY

W 74-63

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−21.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-58

−15.5

TROY

W 74-63

−3.5

over 1under 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Barbara

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +15 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSJSU	W 85-74	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 11	@SAC	W 92-87	-7.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+1.5

SAC

W 92-87

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+12.5

SAC

W 92-87

+17.5

over 2under 0avg +15 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Marymount Lions at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

LMU

Santa Barbara

LMU

Santa Barbara