Alabama State Hornets at Colorado Buffaloes: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 9:00 PM ETCU Events Center · at Colorado

#302ALSTAlabama St66final

Final

#65COLOColorado94▲ winner

Closing lineCOLO -22.5✓ COLO covered by 5.5

Closing total156.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Alabama St and Colorado
ALST	This season	COLO
1-1	Record	3-0
1-1	ATS	1-2
0-2	O/U	3-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALST 71–89 COLO · ✓ COLO (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALST	22	44	66
COLO	46	48	94

1st half: ALST 22, COLO 46 (COLO by 24). The model had COLO by 10.6 and a total of 75.0 (actual 68).

Team stats

ALST		COLO
24-67 36%	Field goals	30-56 54%
11-25 44%	3-pointers	6-16 38%
7-12 58%	Free throws	28-36 78%
33 13 off	Rebounds	46 13 off
14	Assists	20
4	Steals	5
2	Blocks	6
11	Turnovers	11
24	Fouls	15
22	Points in paint	48
10	Fast-break points	30

Players

ALST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Palesse G	36	13	6	2	5-10	3-3
Micah Simpson G	34	9	2	3	4-13	1-5
Jerquarius Stanback F	22	4	3	1	2-6	0-0
R'Chaun King F	14	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Mario Andrews C	12	0	4	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Asjon Anderson G	32	15	0	6	4-15	2-8
Tyler Byrd G	22	5	3	1	2-7	1-3
Tyler Mason F	14	11	6	1	4-8	1-1
Damarien Yates F	14	9	2	0	3-6	3-5

Did not play: Jordon Marshall, Kevin Alabi, JaSteven Walker, Trey Miller, Damion Cox Jr., Damarion Bonds, Tyler Mack

COLO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Barrington Hargress G	23	8	1	1	3-4	1-2
Bangot Dak F	23	16	7	1	4-9	0-1
Felix Kossaras G	21	6	1	1	2-3	2-2
Sebastian Rancik F	21	14	5	3	2-3	0-1
Elijah Malone C	19	5	2	2	2-4	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Johnson G	20	10	2	1	4-6	2-3
Josiah Sanders G	18	10	3	2	3-7	0-2
Jalin Holland G	16	7	7	3	3-3	0-0
Alon Michaeli F	16	10	5	4	4-7	0-0
Ian Inman G	9	0	2	1	0-4	0-3
Andrew Crawford F	7	4	2	0	1-4	1-2
Tacko Ifaola C	6	2	3	1	1-1	0-0
Nick Randall F	1	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jon Mani, Leonardo Van Elswyk

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLO -22.5	COLO -17.9	ALST +4.6	L COLO covered
Total	156.5	160.2	Over 3.7	W Over
Projected score	—	ALST 71.2 · COLO 89

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLO -10.6	COLO -24.0
1H total	75.0	68
1H projected score	ALST 32.2 · COLO 42.8	ALST 22 · COLO 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALST LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
COLO LLW	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: ALST away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALST UU	0-2	0%	1-1
COLO OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALSTlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
COLOlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama St

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

over 0under 2avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +27.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMTST	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 8	vsEWU	W 102-97	-16.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 14	vsPROV	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

−5.5

EWU

W 102-97

−11.5

PROV

W 97-88

+7.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

+13.5

EWU

W 102-97

+46.5

PROV

W 97-88

+21.5

over 3under 0avg +27.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alabama State Hornets at Colorado Buffaloes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama St

Colorado

Alabama St

Colorado