Troy Trojans at Loyola Marymount Lions: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 10:00 PM ETGersten Pavilion · at LMU

#147TROYTroy63final

Final

#121LMULMU74▲ winner

Closing lineLMU -4.5✓ LMU covered by 6.5

Closing total140.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Troy and LMU
TROY	This season	LMU
2-0	Record	3-0
2-0	ATS	2-1
1-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TROY 71–73 LMU · ✓ LMU (57%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TROY	25	38	63
LMU	27	47	74

1st half: TROY 25, LMU 27 (LMU by 2). The model had LMU by 1.1 and a total of 67.1 (actual 52).

Team stats

TROY		LMU
20-49 41%	Field goals	31-59 53%
7-23 30%	3-pointers	7-20 35%
16-20 80%	Free throws	5-11 45%
35 9 off	Rebounds	27 6 off
12	Assists	14
7	Steals	10
2	Blocks	1
20	Turnovers	11
14	Fouls	17
24	Points in paint	40
5	Fast-break points	9

Players

TROY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Thomas Dowd F	35	9	12	0	3-9	1-4
Theo Seng F	34	5	4	3	1-5	1-4
Victor Valdes F	32	14	4	1	5-12	1-4
Cooper Campbell G	31	16	2	2	4-7	1-2
Cobi Campbell G	28	15	3	4	6-9	2-5
Bench
Austin Cross G	14	0	3	2	0-4	0-1
Kerrington Kiel F	12	3	3	0	1-1	1-1
Jerrell Bellamy C	11	1	1	0	0-2	0-2
Javen Colbert G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Emmanuel Clarton, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell, Corbin Green

LMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron McBride F	32	2	7	3	1-2	0-0
Jan Vide G	32	24	2	5	10-18	1-4
Rodney Brown Jr. G	31	17	3	1	7-13	3-7
Jalen Shelley F	25	10	3	0	3-9	2-3
Rick Issanza C	17	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Myron Amey Jr. G	25	11	3	4	5-11	1-5
Rokas Jocius F	16	4	4	0	2-2	0-0
Josh Dalton F	11	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
AJ Thomas G	7	4	0	1	2-2	0-0
Nakyel Shelton G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cooper Smith, Jael Martin, Marley Zeller, George Tupy, Kevin Carney, Tanner Thomas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LMU -4.5	LMU -2.0	TROY +2.5	L LMU covered
Total	140.5	143.1	Over 2.6	L Under
Projected score	—	TROY 70.5 · LMU 72.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LMU -1.1	LMU -2.0
1H total	67.1	52
1H projected score	TROY 33 · LMU 34.1	TROY 25 · LMU 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0
LMU LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; LMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OU	1-1	50%	2-0
LMU UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROYlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
LMUlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Troy

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +15 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KENT	W 103-97	+3.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	@FUR	W 64-61	+2.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+9.5

FUR

W 64-61

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+57.5

FUR

W 64-61

−27.5

over 1under 1avg +15 ptslonger = bigger margin

LMU

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsEWU	W 70-62	-9.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsUAPB	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@UTEP	W 71-58	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−1.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+2.5

UTEP

W 71-58

+14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−21.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-58

−15.5

over 1under 2avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Troy Trojans at Loyola Marymount Lions

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Troy

LMU

Troy

LMU