Troy Trojans at Kent State Golden Flashes: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ETM.A.C. Center · at Kent State

#147TROYTroy103▲ winner

Final

#151KENTKent State97final

Closing lineKENT -3.5✓ TROY covered by 9.5

Closing total142.5Over by 57.5

Season records: Troy and Kent State
TROY	This season	KENT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TROY 69–71 KENT · ✗ KENT (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
TROY	42	45	16	103
KENT	34	53	10	97

1st half: TROY 42, KENT 34 (TROY by 8). The model had KENT by 1.1 and a total of 65.6 (actual 76).

Team stats

TROY		KENT
33-63 52%	Field goals	30-79 38%
12-26 46%	3-pointers	12-31 39%
25-33 76%	Free throws	25-33 76%
34 6 off	Rebounds	45 22 off
20	Assists	17
8	Steals	5
3	Blocks	5
12	Turnovers	14
24	Fouls	23
40	Points in paint	30
13	Fast-break points	11

Players

TROY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cooper Campbell G	38	19	6	8	6-10	3-5
Theo Seng F	37	24	4	0	6-10	2-5
Thomas Dowd F	36	19	13	3	7-14	2-5
Victor Valdes F	35	23	3	6	7-14	2-5
Cobi Campbell G	34	10	2	1	4-7	2-3
Bench
Austin Cross G	18	3	0	0	1-5	1-3
Kerrington Kiel F	13	2	3	2	1-2	0-0
Jerrell Bellamy C	5	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Corbin Green F	5	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Javen Colbert G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Emmanuel Clarton G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell

KENT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Morgan Safford G	37	21	4	1	7-15	5-10
Delrecco Gillespie F	37	22	16	2	7-14	0-2
Cian Medley G	33	5	0	3	2-12	0-2
Jahari Williamson G	13	4	2	1	1-4	1-3
Magnus Entenmann F	11	2	2	3	0-0	0-0
Bench
Rob Whaley Jr. F	30	21	8	2	6-18	2-3
Rayvon Griffith G	23	8	4	1	3-7	2-5
Quinn Woidke G	19	10	6	0	3-8	2-6
Omer Hamama G	15	4	1	4	1-1	0-0
Dezmon Briscoe F	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dylan Lakatos, Jaymen Townsend, Landon Vanderwarker, Drew Huffman, Derrick Lee Jr., Dre Jones, Jamal Sumlin, Brenden Moss

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KENT -3.5	KENT -2.1	TROY +1.4	W TROY covered
Total	142.5	140.1	Under 2.4	L Over
Projected score	—	TROY 69 · KENT 71.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENT -1.1	TROY -8.0
1H total	65.6	76
1H projected score	TROY 32.3 · KENT 33.4	TROY 42 · KENT 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2024-25 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2024-25 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWWWL	20-12	63%	10-5	4-4
KENT LLWWL	16-18	47%	5-8	13-12

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; KENT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2024-25 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UOOOU	14-18	44%	21-11
KENT UUUOU	13-21	38%	22-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2024-25

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
KENT	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TROY 1–0 KENTTROY leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TROY 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 10, 2023-24	KENT 68 @ TROY 78	TROY -5.5	TROY W

ATS History · 2024-25

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Troy

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

20-12

63% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W L L W W L W L W W W L L W L W W W W L L W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1263%

W W L L W W L W W W W L L L W W W L L W L L W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U U U O O O O U U U U O O U U U U O U U U U U O O O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsTOL	W 84-74	-5.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 9	@NOLA	W 78-61	-12.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 13	@ARK	L 49-65	+12.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 114
Nov 17	@ORE	L 61-82	+12.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 143
Nov 19	@WGA	W 84-65	-14.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 25	vsUTSA	W 86-72	-10.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 29	vsMRMK	L 68-72	-11.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 1	vsEKU	W 84-74	-8.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 158
Dec 10	@HOU	L 42-62	+26.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 104
Dec 21	vsGAST	W 77-57	-11.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 134
Jan 2	@APP	W 69-61	-2.5	W +5.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 4	@MRSH	W 58-57	-1.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 115
Jan 9	vsTXST	L 73-74	-6.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 11	vsARST	L 78-84	-2.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 162
Jan 15	@ULM	W 77-58	-12.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 135
Jan 18	@USA	L 63-64	+3.5	W +2.5	131.5	U 127
Jan 25	vsUSA	W 65-55	-3.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 120
Jan 27	vsUSM	W 70-61	-11.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 131
Jan 30	vsGASO	W 81-74	-9.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 155
Feb 1	vsULM	W 87-50	-17.5	W +19.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 5	@JMU	L 61-64	+2.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 125
Feb 8	@M-OH	L 62-69	-1.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 131
Feb 12	@UL	W 74-56	-9.5	W +8.5	137.5	U 130
Feb 15	@ARST	W 71-70	+6.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 141
Feb 20	vsUL	L 69-72	-15.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 141
Feb 22	vsCCU	W 83-66	-15.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 149
Feb 25	@TXST	W 74-69	-1.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 28	@USM	W 70-58	-9.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 8	vsODU	W 75-59	-11.5	W +4.5	130.5	O 134
Mar 9	vsJMU	W 79-60	-1.5	W +17.5	132.5	O 139
Mar 10	vsARST	W 94-81	+2.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 175
Mar 21	vsUK	L 57-76	+10.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOL

W 84-74

+4.5

NOLA

W 78-61

+4.5

ARK

L 49-65

−3.5

ORE

L 61-82

−8.5

WGA

W 84-65

+4.5

UTSA

W 86-72

+3.5

MRMK

L 68-72

−15.5

EKU

W 84-74

+1.5

HOU

L 42-62

+6.5

GAST

W 77-57

+8.5

APP

W 69-61

+5.5

MRSH

W 58-57

−0.5

TXST

L 73-74

−7.5

ARST

L 78-84

−8.5

ULM

W 77-58

+6.5

USA

L 63-64

+2.5

USA

W 65-55

+6.5

USM

W 70-61

−2.5

GASO

W 81-74

−2.5

ULM

W 87-50

+19.5

JMU

L 61-64

−0.5

M-OH

L 62-69

−8.5

W 74-56

+8.5

ARST

W 71-70

+7.5

L 69-72

−18.5

CCU

W 83-66

+1.5

TXST

W 74-69

+3.5

USM

W 70-58

+2.5

ODU

W 75-59

+4.5

JMU

W 79-60

+17.5

ARST

W 94-81

+15.5

L 57-76

−8.5

covered 20didn’t cover 12avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOL

W 84-74

+3.5

NOLA

W 78-61

−12.5

ARK

L 49-65

−39.5

ORE

L 61-82

−3.5

WGA

W 84-65

+4.5

UTSA

W 86-72

+6.5

MRMK

L 68-72

+5.5

EKU

W 84-74

+11.5

HOU

L 42-62

−28.5

GAST

W 77-57

−13.5

APP

W 69-61

−2.5

MRSH

W 58-57

−28.5

TXST

L 73-74

+10.5

ARST

L 78-84

+17.5

ULM

W 77-58

−1.5

USA

L 63-64

−4.5

USA

W 65-55

−12.5

USM

W 70-61

−14.5

GASO

W 81-74

+10.5

ULM

W 87-50

−1.5

JMU

L 61-64

−10.5

M-OH

L 62-69

−9.5

W 74-56

−7.5

ARST

W 71-70

−4.5

L 69-72

+3.5

CCU

W 83-66

+13.5

TXST

W 74-69

+0.5

USM

W 70-58

−15.5

ODU

W 75-59

+3.5

JMU

W 79-60

+6.5

ARST

W 94-81

+32.5

L 57-76

−18.5

over 14under 18avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kent State

34 games played

Straight up

22-12

65% wins

Against the spread

16-18

47% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-21

38% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1265%

W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L W L W L W W W W W L W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1847%

W L L W W L W W W L L W W L L W L W L W W L L W L W L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2138%

U U O U U U U U O U O U U O U U U U O U O O O O O O U O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UL	W 70-66	-2.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 136
Nov 13	@AUB	L 56-79	+22.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 21	vsNIA	W 76-73	-13.5	L −10.5	137.5	O 149
Nov 23	@CLE	W 68-52	-2.5	W +13.5	135.5	U 120
Nov 28	vsTOW	W 65-54	-1.5	W +9.5	131.5	U 119
Nov 29	vsUCI	L 39-51	+5.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 90
Nov 30	vsKENN	W 67-60	-5.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 6	vsPORT	W 76-57	-13.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 133
Dec 15	vsMERC	W 82-57	-17.5	W +7.5	127.5	O 139
Dec 22	@ALA	L 54-81	+20.5	L −6.5	153.5	U 135
Jan 4	vsBALL	L 67-75	-10.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 7	@NIU	W 68-50	-12.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 118
Jan 10	@BUF	W 68-49	-10.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 117
Jan 14	vsWMU	L 83-94	-12.5	L −23.5	139.5	O 177
Jan 18	vsM-OH	L 61-70	-5.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 131
Jan 21	@TOL	W 83-64	+1.5	W +20.5	148.5	U 147
Jan 24	@OHIO	L 59-61	-1.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 120
Jan 28	vsBGSU	W 75-57	-12.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsAKR	L 71-85	-3.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 156
Feb 4	@EMU	W 70-49	-7.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 119
Feb 8	vsARST	W 76-75	-0.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 151
Feb 11	vsCMU	W 91-83	-8.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 174
Feb 14	vsOHIO	W 76-75	-4.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 18	@BGSU	W 91-84	-6.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 175
Feb 21	@M-OH	L 92-96	+0.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 188
Feb 25	vsTOL	W 105-65	-6.5	W +33.5	150.5	O 170
Feb 28	@AKR	L 72-77	+3.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 149
Mar 4	@WMU	W 77-76	-7.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 153
Mar 7	vsEMU	W 76-70	-11.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 13	vsWMU	W 73-66	-10.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 14	vsM-OH	L 64-72	-3.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 136
Mar 18	@SBU	W 75-56	+4.5	W +23.5	137.5	U 131
Mar 23	@STAN	W 77-75	+7.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 152
Mar 26	@LUC	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 70-66

+1.5

AUB

L 56-79

−0.5

NIA

W 76-73

−10.5

CLE

W 68-52

+13.5

TOW

W 65-54

+9.5

UCI

L 39-51

−6.5

KENN

W 67-60

+1.5

PORT

W 76-57

+5.5

MERC

W 82-57

+7.5

ALA

L 54-81

−6.5

BALL

L 67-75

−18.5

NIU

W 68-50

+5.5

BUF

W 68-49

+8.5

WMU

L 83-94

−23.5

M-OH

L 61-70

−14.5

TOL

W 83-64

+20.5

OHIO

L 59-61

−3.5

BGSU

W 75-57

+5.5

AKR

L 71-85

−17.5

EMU

W 70-49

+13.5

ARST

W 76-75

+0.5

CMU

W 91-83

−0.5

OHIO

W 76-75

−3.5

BGSU

W 91-84

+0.5

M-OH

L 92-96

−3.5

TOL

W 105-65

+33.5

AKR

L 72-77

−1.5

WMU

W 77-76

−6.5

EMU

W 76-70

−5.5

WMU

W 73-66

−3.5

M-OH

L 64-72

−11.5

SBU

W 75-56

+23.5

STAN

W 77-75

+9.5

LUC

L 62-72

−4.5

covered 16didn’t cover 18avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 70-66

−8.5

AUB

L 56-79

−13.5

NIA

W 76-73

+11.5

CLE

W 68-52

−15.5

TOW

W 65-54

−12.5

UCI

L 39-51

−46.5

KENN

W 67-60

−13.5

PORT

W 76-57

−7.5

MERC

W 82-57

+11.5

ALA

L 54-81

−18.5

BALL

L 67-75

+4.5

NIU

W 68-50

−22.5

BUF

W 68-49

−30.5

WMU

L 83-94

+37.5

M-OH

L 61-70

−10.5

TOL

W 83-64

−1.5

OHIO

L 59-61

−23.5

BGSU

W 75-57

−8.5

AKR

L 71-85

+10.5

EMU

W 70-49

−23.5

ARST

W 76-75

+9.5

CMU

W 91-83

+38.5

OHIO

W 76-75

+3.5

BGSU

W 91-84

+32.5

M-OH

L 92-96

+41.5

TOL

W 105-65

+19.5

AKR

L 72-77

−7.5

WMU

W 77-76

+6.5

EMU

W 76-70

−1.5

WMU

W 73-66

−4.5

M-OH

L 64-72

−10.5

SBU

W 75-56

−6.5

STAN

W 77-75

+9.5

LUC

L 62-72

−8.5

over 13under 21avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Troy Trojans at Kent State Golden Flashes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2024-25

Troy

Kent State

Troy

Kent State