Longwood Lancers vs Siena Saints: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 1:00 PM ETBender Arena · Neutral site

#218LONGLongwood63final

Final

#260SIESiena70▲ winner

Closing lineSIE -5.5✓ SIE covered by 1.5

Closing total145.5Under by 12.5

Season records: Longwood and Siena
LONG	This season	SIE
2-3	Record	4-2
1-4	ATS	3-3
4-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LONG 74–78 SIE · ✓ SIE (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LONG	28	35	63
SIE	28	42	70

1st half: LONG 28, SIE 28 (tied). The model had SIE by 2.2 and a total of 71.3 (actual 56).

Team stats

LONG		SIE
22-53 42%	Field goals	25-49 51%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	7-23 30%
13-16 81%	Free throws	13-22 59%
36 12 off	Rebounds	27 5 off
11	Assists	17
4	Steals	12
0	Blocks	4
19	Turnovers	13
18	Fouls	15
24	Points in paint	32
3	Fast-break points	8

Players

LONG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jacoi Hutchinson G	27	15	2	3	5-8	1-2
Alphonzo Billups III G	26	7	0	3	2-7	1-5
Emanuel Richards G	26	8	3	1	4-8	0-1
Elijah Tucker F	25	2	7	0	0-4	0-0
Johan Nziemi F	16	5	4	0	1-3	0-0
Bench
Elijah Jones F	27	6	4	0	3-5	0-2
Redd Thompson Jr. G	21	15	7	4	6-12	3-6
Jaylen Benard G	15	3	4	0	1-5	1-4
Jaylin Payne F	13	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Elijah Kelly G	3	2	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jerome Williams G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Quadri Bashiru, Gerald Burr III, Isaiah Kalala, KJ McClurg

SIE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brendan Coyle G	38	23	4	1	7-14	5-12
Francis Folefac F	37	10	8	3	3-4	0-0
Justice Shoats G	37	15	0	6	7-9	0-0
Gavin Doty G	34	11	6	1	3-9	1-4
Antonio Chandler F	14	4	4	0	2-4	0-1
Bench
Christian Jones G	24	5	1	3	2-7	1-5
Marcus Jackson G	9	0	3	3	0-1	0-1
Tajae Jones F	4	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Isaiah Henderson G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Owen Schlager, Danny Murray, Chris Torres, Cooper Nadler, Tasman Goodrick, Mosi Clayton, Reid Ducharme, Riley Mulvey

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SIE -5.5	SIE -4.0	LONG +1.5	L SIE covered
Total	145.5	152.2	Over 6.7	L Under
Projected score	—	LONG 74.1 · SIE 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIE -2.2	PK
1H total	71.3	56
1H projected score	LONG 34.5 · SIE 36.7	LONG 28 · SIE 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LONG LWLLL	1-4	20%	—	1-2
SIE WWLLL	3-3	50%	—	2-3

Venue/role: LONG neutral site, as underdog; SIE neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LONG UOOOO	4-1	80%	2-3
SIE UOUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LONGlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%
SIElast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Longwood

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −7.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +11.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

over 4under 1avg +11.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Siena

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 12	@SBU	L 66-75	+9.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 17	vsCOLG	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsUALB	W 73-63	-10.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 24	@HC	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−9.5

UALB

W 73-63

−0.5

W 73-69

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−5.5

UALB

W 73-63

−4.5

W 73-69

+4.5

over 2under 4avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Longwood Lancers vs Siena Saints

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Longwood

Siena

Longwood

Siena