Siena Saints at St. Bonaventure Bonnies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ETReilly Center · at St Bonaventure

#259SIESiena66final

Final

Closing lineSBU -9.5✓ SIE covered by 0.5

Closing total140.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Siena and St Bonaventure
SIE	This season	SBU
2-0	Record	2-0
2-0	ATS	1-1
0-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SIE 67–74 SBU · ✓ SBU (73%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SIE	33	33	66
SBU	36	39	75

1st half: SIE 33, SBU 36 (SBU by 3). The model had SBU by 4.0 and a total of 66.3 (actual 69).

Team stats

SIE		SBU
21-53 40%	Field goals	31-59 53%
6-15 40%	3-pointers	3-8 38%
18-24 75%	Free throws	10-15 67%
32 15 off	Rebounds	31 13 off
11	Assists	13
6	Steals	10
2	Blocks	8
14	Turnovers	12
15	Fouls	19
20	Points in paint	46
4	Fast-break points	9

Players

SIE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Gavin Doty G	36	25	8	4	8-17	1-3
Tasman Goodrick F	35	4	12	2	2-9	0-0
Brendan Coyle G	32	14	2	1	4-8	4-7
Justice Shoats G	32	8	1	2	2-6	0-1
Antonio Chandler F	15	4	3	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Francis Folefac F	27	6	2	2	2-6	0-1
Owen Schlager G	12	5	2	0	1-3	1-3
Christian Jones G	9	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Riley Mulvey C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Isaiah Henderson, Danny Murray, Tajae Jones, Cooper Nadler, Chris Torres, Mosi Clayton, Marcus Jackson, Reid Ducharme

SBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Frank Mitchell F	36	13	10	2	6-13	0-0
Dasonte Bowen G	35	8	1	2	4-11	0-1
Darryl Simmons II G	30	24	1	1	9-13	2-2
Cayden Charles G	29	15	9	1	5-7	0-0
Joe Grahovac F	21	2	3	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Amar'e Marshall G	19	7	1	5	3-5	1-3
Andrew Osasuyi F	18	6	4	1	3-5	0-0
Achille Lonati G	10	0	0	0	0-3	0-2
Xander Wedlow F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: John Ikpotokin, Ilia Ermakov, Brayden Jackson, Jack DeRose, Broek Ostrom, Daniel Egbuniwe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SBU -9.5	SBU -6.9	SIE +2.6	W SIE covered
Total	140.5	141.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	SIE 67.3 · SBU 74.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -4.0	SBU -3.0
1H total	66.3	69
1H projected score	SIE 31.1 · SBU 35.1	SIE 33 · SBU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIE WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—
SBU WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: SIE away, as underdog; SBU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIE UU	0-2	0%	2-0
SBU UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIElast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%
SBUlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SIE 1–3 SBUSBU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · SBU has won the last 2 meetings · SIE 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2024-25	SBU 65 @ SIE 48	SIE +6.5	SBU W
Dec 9, 2023-24	SIE 56 @ SBU 89	SBU -20.5	SBU W
Dec 19, 2022-23	SBU 70 @ SIE 76	SIE +1.5	SIE W
Nov 9, 2021-22	SIE 47 @ SBU 75	SBU -19	SBU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Siena

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −17.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

over 0under 2avg −17.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Bonaventure

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

over 1under 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Siena Saints at St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Siena

St Bonaventure

Siena

St Bonaventure