Colgate Raiders at Siena Saints: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETMVP Arena · at Siena

#211COLGColgate72▲ winner

Final

#259SIESiena69final

Closing lineSIE -6.5✓ COLG covered by 9.5

Closing total146.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Colgate and Siena
COLG	This season	SIE
1-3	Record	2-1
3-1	ATS	3-0
2-2	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COLG 70–75 SIE · ✗ SIE (67%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COLG	30	42	72
SIE	28	41	69

1st half: COLG 30, SIE 28 (COLG by 2). The model had SIE by 2.9 and a total of 67.8 (actual 58).

Team stats

COLG		SIE
28-52 54%	Field goals	25-58 43%
3-11 27%	3-pointers	4-18 22%
13-17 76%	Free throws	15-18 83%
27 6 off	Rebounds	33 12 off
8	Assists	11
7	Steals	6
7	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	10
17	Fouls	16
36	Points in paint	38
6	Fast-break points	3

Players

COLG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jalen Cox G	38	22	3	1	7-15	2-5
Andrew Alekseyenko F	32	17	5	3	7-12	1-2
Sam Wright F	24	13	2	1	6-9	0-2
Brady Cummins G	20	4	0	0	2-3	0-0
Ben Tweedy G	19	2	1	0	1-3	0-1
Bench
Josh Ahayere G	24	7	5	0	2-4	0-0
Kyle Carlesimo G	23	2	3	3	1-3	0-1
Ayomi Odetoyinbo F	14	5	5	0	2-3	0-0
Cooper Wright F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jonathan Niv, Charlie Pugh, Blake Forrest, Ethan Brown, Cameron Brennan, Stevie Clark, Parker Jones

SIE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Gavin Doty G	36	14	5	3	6-14	0-4
Brendan Coyle G	36	6	7	2	2-11	1-8
Justice Shoats G	33	6	2	6	2-7	0-0
Tasman Goodrick F	29	8	4	0	4-5	0-0
Antonio Chandler F	23	11	7	0	2-6	1-1
Bench
Francis Folefac F	17	16	1	0	6-7	0-0
Christian Jones G	16	8	0	0	3-5	2-3
Isaiah Henderson G	6	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Owen Schlager G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Danny Murray, Cooper Nadler, Tajae Jones, Chris Torres, Riley Mulvey, Mosi Clayton, Marcus Jackson, Reid Ducharme

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SIE -6.5	SIE -5.0	COLG +1.5	W COLG covered
Total	146.5	144.8	Under 1.7	W Under
Projected score	—	COLG 69.9 · SIE 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIE -2.9	COLG -2.0
1H total	67.8	58
1H projected score	COLG 32.5 · SIE 35.4	COLG 30 · SIE 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLG WLWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0
SIE WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: COLG away, as underdog; SIE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLG OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3
SIE UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLGlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
SIElast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Colgate

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MSU	L 69-80	+22.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 7	vsNE	L 65-68	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsDREX	W 90-83	-3.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 14	@ILL	L 65-84	+30.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+11.5

L 65-68

−8.5

DREX

W 90-83

+3.5

ILL

L 65-84

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+4.5

L 65-68

−14.5

DREX

W 90-83

+29.5

ILL

L 65-84

−15.5

over 2under 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Siena

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 12	@SBU	L 66-75	+9.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

over 1under 2avg −11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Colgate Raiders at Siena Saints

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Colgate

Siena

Colgate

Siena