Oakland Golden Grizzlies at UCF Knights: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETAddition Financial Arena · at UCF

#204OAKOakland83final

Final

#39UCFUCF87▲ winner

Closing lineUCF -13.5✓ OAK covered by 9.5

Closing total163.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Oakland and UCF
OAK	This season	UCF
0-3	Record	3-1
1-2	ATS	2-2
2-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OAK 75–89 UCF · ✓ UCF (88%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OAK	40	43	83
UCF	44	43	87

1st half: OAK 40, UCF 44 (UCF by 4). The model had UCF by 7.8 and a total of 76.8 (actual 84).

Team stats

OAK		UCF
26-61 43%	Field goals	31-65 48%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	7-23 30%
22-26 85%	Free throws	18-25 72%
32 10 off	Rebounds	42 16 off
17	Assists	21
3	Steals	4
3	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	11
18	Fouls	19
30	Points in paint	42
17	Fast-break points	14

Players

OAK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tuburu Naivalurua F	38	11	6	5	4-11	0-1
Brody Robinson G	33	20	1	2	4-8	3-4
Nassim Mashhour G	32	4	3	3	2-11	0-7
Isaac Garrett F	31	23	7	2	7-12	0-0
Ziare Wells G	19	2	4	1	1-4	0-0
Bench
Brett White II G	30	21	4	1	7-12	6-11
Khoi Thurmon G	9	0	0	3	0-1	0-0
Warren Marshall IV G	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Nate Deer F	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Michael Houge, Hamoudy Mashhour, Donny Yeager, William Kassi, MJ Yeager

UCF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Themus Fulks G	34	11	6	10	4-9	0-0
Riley Kugel G	31	18	3	2	5-12	3-8
Jamichael Stillwell F	30	20	14	2	8-13	1-1
Jordan Burks F	28	13	7	2	5-11	1-5
John Bol C	16	6	2	1	3-3	0-0
Bench
Carmelo Pacheco G	18	8	3	0	2-8	2-8
Kris Parker G	11	8	2	1	3-3	0-0
Devan Cambridge F	10	2	2	2	1-3	0-0
George Beale Jr. G	8	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Jeremy Foumena C	7	1	2	0	0-0	0-0
Chris Johnson G	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Poohpha Warakulnukroh, Zachary Johnson, Tanner Jones, Elijah Hulsewe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCF -13.5	UCF -13.2	OAK +0.3	W OAK covered
Total	163.5	163.9	Over 0.4	W Over
Projected score	—	OAK 75.3 · UCF 88.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCF -7.8	UCF -4.0
1H total	76.8	84
1H projected score	OAK 34.5 · UCF 42.3	OAK 40 · UCF 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OAK LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
UCF LLWW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: OAK away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OAK OOU	2-1	67%	0-3
UCF OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OAKlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
UCFlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oakland

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +10.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MICH	L 78-121	+24.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 199
Nov 7	@PUR	L 77-87	+31.5	W +21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 12	@HOU	L 45-78	+30.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

−18.5

PUR

L 77-87

+21.5

HOU

L 45-78

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

+42.5

PUR

L 77-87

+5.5

HOU

L 45-78

−15.5

over 2under 1avg +10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCF

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

over 2under 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at UCF Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Oakland

UCF

Oakland

UCF