Cleveland State Vikings at Missouri Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETMizzou Arena · at Missouri

Final

#54MIZMissouri86▲ winner

Closing lineMIZ -31.5✓ CLE covered by 4.5

Closing total170.5Under by 25.5

Season records: Cleveland St and Missouri
CLE	This season	MIZ
1-5	Record	7-0
3-3	ATS	4-3
5-1	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CLE 71–97 MIZ · ✓ MIZ (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CLE	24	35	59
MIZ	46	40	86

1st half: CLE 24, MIZ 46 (MIZ by 22). The model had MIZ by 15.5 and a total of 78.8 (actual 70).

Team stats

CLE		MIZ
21-57 37%	Field goals	32-67 48%
11-29 38%	3-pointers	11-38 29%
6-11 55%	Free throws	11-13 85%
26 9 off	Rebounds	47 18 off
12	Assists	16
6	Steals	12
3	Blocks	7
17	Turnovers	16
15	Fouls	16
18	Points in paint	40
15	Fast-break points	6

Players

CLE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaidon Lipscomb G	30	12	1	3	4-9	4-9
Dayan Nessah G	29	14	9	2	5-10	1-1
Preist Ryan F	26	7	1	1	3-7	0-2
David Giddens G	23	5	3	1	2-9	1-7
Holden Pierre-Louis F	19	2	2	1	1-5	0-0
Bench
Chevalier Emery G	27	9	0	2	3-7	2-4
Foster Wonders G	22	9	2	0	3-7	3-6
Lucas Burton F	12	0	1	2	0-1	0-0
Kevo St. Hilaire F	10	1	3	0	0-2	0-0
Manny Hill G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kamari Jones, Josiah Harris, Tre Beard, Waqo Tessema, Ivan Spirov

MIZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mark Mitchell Jr. G	30	10	6	4	3-4	0-1
Anthony Robinson II G	29	4	1	1	2-8	0-4
Sebastian Mack G	25	10	4	1	4-10	2-7
Jevon Porter F	18	9	6	2	4-10	1-5
Shawn Phillips Jr. C	16	6	5	3	2-2	0-0
Bench
Jacob Crews G	28	20	8	0	7-15	4-10
T.O. Barrett F	17	6	2	3	3-4	0-1
Annor Boateng G	14	10	1	0	3-6	2-4
Luke Northweather F	14	10	6	0	4-7	2-5
Trent Burns C	6	0	2	2	0-0	0-0
Nicholas Randall F	3	1	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jayden Stone, Aaron Rowe, Trent Pierce

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MIZ -31.5	MIZ -25.9	CLE +5.6	W CLE covered
Total	170.5	168.3	Under 2.2	W Under
Projected score	—	CLE 71.2 · MIZ 97.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MIZ -15.5	MIZ -22.0
1H total	78.8	70
1H projected score	CLE 31.6 · MIZ 47.1	CLE 24 · MIZ 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	3-2
MIZ WWLWL	4-3	57%	3-3	4-3

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOOOU	5-1	83%	1-5
MIZ OUUUO	3-4	43%	7-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%
MIZlast 7	7-0 100%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cleveland St

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +13.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LUC	L 88-91	+17.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 10	@NU	L 63-110	+23.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsKENT	L 95-102	+11.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsRAD	W 87-82	+8.5	W +13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsVAL	L 75-90	-2.5	L −17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 22	@KENT	L 71-91	+15.5	L −4.5	172.5	U 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+14.5

L 63-110

−23.5

KENT

L 95-102

+4.5

RAD

W 87-82

+13.5

VAL

L 75-90

−17.5

KENT

L 71-91

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+27.5

L 63-110

+21.5

KENT

L 95-102

+31.5

RAD

W 87-82

+6.5

VAL

L 75-90

+6.5

KENT

L 71-91

−10.5

over 5under 1avg +13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Missouri

7 games played

Straight up

7-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOW	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 7	vsSEMO	W 89-84	-25.5	L −20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 9	vsVMI	W 106-68	-23.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMINN	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 17	vsPV	W 91-73	-35.5	L −17.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 20	vsSDAK	W 102-68	-24.5	W +9.5	171.5	U 170
Nov 25	vsSCST	W 98-66	-34.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

+0.5

SEMO

W 89-84

−20.5

VMI

W 106-68

+14.5

MINN

W 83-60

+15.5

W 91-73

−17.5

SDAK

W 102-68

+9.5

SCST

W 98-66

−2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

−3.5

SEMO

W 89-84

+15.5

VMI

W 106-68

+12.5

MINN

W 83-60

−15.5

W 91-73

−2.5

SDAK

W 102-68

−1.5

SCST

W 98-66

+3.5

over 3under 4avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cleveland State Vikings at Missouri Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Cleveland St

Missouri

Cleveland St

Missouri