South Dakota Coyotes at Missouri Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ETMizzou Arena · at Missouri

Final

#54MIZMissouri102▲ winner

Closing lineMIZ -24.5✓ MIZ covered by 9.5

Closing total171.5Under by 1.5

Season records: South Dakota and Missouri
SDAK	This season	MIZ
2-2	Record	5-0
3-1	ATS	3-2
0-4	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SDAK 76–97 MIZ · ✓ MIZ (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SDAK	42	26	68
MIZ	53	49	102

1st half: SDAK 42, MIZ 53 (MIZ by 11). The model had MIZ by 12.5 and a total of 80.5 (actual 95).

Team stats

SDAK		MIZ
23-58 40%	Field goals	36-56 64%
10-29 34%	3-pointers	6-11 55%
12-21 57%	Free throws	24-30 80%
24 12 off	Rebounds	38 12 off
9	Assists	16
8	Steals	10
4	Blocks	2
17	Turnovers	17
19	Fouls	17
24	Points in paint	56
6	Fast-break points	12

Players

SDAK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaac Bruns G	30	14	4	1	5-15	2-8
Jordan Crawford G	27	18	2	0	7-15	3-9
Shey Eberwein G	26	5	1	4	1-4	0-1
Cameron Fens C	20	9	5	0	3-5	0-0
Evan Anderson G	10	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Uzziah Buntyn G	18	10	2	0	3-7	2-5
Jesse McIntosh G	18	0	2	3	0-4	0-2
Vince Buzelis G	14	5	1	0	2-3	1-1
Ethan Kizer F	14	6	2	1	2-3	2-3
Jake Brack F	13	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Ashton Smith F	8	1	1	0	0-1	0-0
Porter Ihnen G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jalen Hayes, Josiah Dotzler, Luke Bruns, Caleb Kizer, Jonah Funk

MIZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Anthony Robinson II G	32	11	5	6	3-6	1-1
Mark Mitchell Jr. G	28	22	5	2	7-12	0-0
Jevon Porter F	24	19	12	1	9-9	0-0
Sebastian Mack G	21	13	1	0	6-11	0-1
Luke Northweather F	20	3	2	2	1-3	1-1
Bench
Jayden Stone G	24	12	6	1	3-5	1-3
Jacob Crews G	21	15	2	1	4-7	3-5
Annor Boateng G	14	3	1	1	1-1	0-0
T.O. Barrett F	9	2	1	2	1-1	0-0
Nicholas Randall F	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Trent Burns, Shawn Phillips Jr., Aaron Rowe, Trent Pierce

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MIZ -24.5	MIZ -21.0	SDAK +3.5	L MIZ covered
Total	171.5	171.9	Over 0.4	L Under
Projected score	—	SDAK 75.5 · MIZ 96.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MIZ -12.5	MIZ -11.0
1H total	80.5	95
1H projected score	SDAK 34 · MIZ 46.5	SDAK 42 · MIZ 53

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDAK LWWW	3-1	75%	1-0	1-0
MIZ WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: SDAK away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDAK UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2
MIZ UOOUU	2-3	40%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDAKlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	0-4 0%
MIZlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Dakota

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUTU	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 5	@CREI	L 76-92	+29.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	vsUSI	W 89-74	-7.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 16	vsWMU	W 83-78	-3.5	W +1.5	172.5	U 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−3.5

CREI

L 76-92

+13.5

USI

W 89-74

+7.5

WMU

W 83-78

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−4.5

CREI

L 76-92

−1.5

USI

W 89-74

−1.5

WMU

W 83-78

−11.5

over 0under 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Missouri

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOW	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 7	vsSEMO	W 89-84	-25.5	L −20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 9	vsVMI	W 106-68	-23.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMINN	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 17	vsPV	W 91-73	-35.5	L −17.5	166.5	U 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

+0.5

SEMO

W 89-84

−20.5

VMI

W 106-68

+14.5

MINN

W 83-60

+15.5

W 91-73

−17.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

−3.5

SEMO

W 89-84

+15.5

VMI

W 106-68

+12.5

MINN

W 83-60

−15.5

W 91-73

−2.5

over 2under 3avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Dakota Coyotes at Missouri Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

South Dakota

Missouri

South Dakota

Missouri