Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Texas Tech Red Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 8:59 PM ETBaha Mar Convention Center · Neutral site

Final

#12TTUTexas Tech AP #1584▲ winner

Closing lineTTU -9.5✓ WAKE covered by 8.5

Closing total160.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Wake Forest and Texas Tech
WAKE	This season	TTU
3-1	Record	3-1
2-2	ATS	1-3
3-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WAKE 74–84 TTU · ✓ TTU (80%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WAKE	34	49	83
TTU	35	49	84

1st half: WAKE 34, TTU 35 (TTU by 1). The model had TTU by 5.6 and a total of 74.2 (actual 69).

Team stats

WAKE		TTU
31-66 47%	Field goals	28-68 41%
8-18 44%	3-pointers	12-35 34%
13-22 59%	Free throws	16-21 76%
33 10 off	Rebounds	44 16 off
12	Assists	22
5	Steals	7
6	Blocks	2
8	Turnovers	14
19	Fouls	17
40	Points in paint	26
6	Fast-break points	6

Players

WAKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Juke Harris G	33	26	10	2	8-13	3-5
Nate Calmese G	26	9	2	6	4-12	1-4
Mekhi Mason G	16	9	2	1	3-4	2-2
Tre'Von Spillers F	16	4	3	1	2-6	0-1
Omaha Biliew F	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Myles Colvin G	31	19	6	0	6-15	2-4
Cooper Schwieger F	30	6	6	2	3-5	0-0
Marqus Marion F	29	6	2	0	3-5	0-1
Sebastian Akins G	14	4	0	0	2-4	0-0

Did not play: Isaac Carr, Dimitrije Kovacevic, Owen Kmety, Anson Beard Jr., Jaylen Cross, Will Underwood, Vincent Ricchiuti

TTU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Anderson G	39	16	3	8	6-13	3-8
Tyeree Bryan G	36	13	7	1	3-10	3-8
JT Toppin F	33	21	9	4	10-19	0-3
LeJuan Watts G	32	8	6	6	1-9	0-4
Donovan Atwell G	17	9	3	0	3-6	3-6
Bench
Jaylen Petty G	29	11	5	3	3-6	3-6
Luke Bamgboye F	10	6	6	0	2-4	0-0
Nolan Groves G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Leon Horner G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: LaTrell Hoover, Marial Akuentok, Jazz Henderson Jr., Jack Francis, Josiah Moseley

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TTU -9.5	TTU -9.5	—	WAKE covered
Total	160.5	158.4	Under 2.1	L Over
Projected score	—	WAKE 74.4 · TTU 83.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TTU -5.6	TTU -1.0
1H total	74.2	69
1H projected score	WAKE 34.3 · TTU 39.9	WAKE 34 · TTU 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WAKE LLWW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0
TTU WLLL	1-3	25%	—	1-2

Venue/role: WAKE neutral site, as underdog; TTU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1
TTU OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKElast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
TTUlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wake Forest

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

over 3under 1avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas Tech

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLIN	W 98-60	-29.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 7	vsSHSU	W 98-77	-31.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 11	@ILL	L 77-81	+3.5	L −0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsMILW	W 80-63	-27.5	L −10.5	165.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+8.5

SHSU

W 98-77

−10.5

ILL

L 77-81

−0.5

MILW

W 80-63

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+11.5

SHSU

W 98-77

+18.5

ILL

L 77-81

−10.5

MILW

W 80-63

−22.5

over 2under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wake Forest vs Texas Tech

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Wake Forest

Texas Tech

Wake Forest

Texas Tech