Central Arkansas Bears at North Texas Mean Green: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ETThe Super Pit · at North Texas

#240CARKC Arkansas56final

Final

#112UNTNorth Texas74▲ winner

Closing lineUNT -16.5✓ UNT covered by 1.5

Closing total134.5Under by 4.5

Season records: C Arkansas and North Texas
CARK	This season	UNT
0-3	Record	2-2
0-3	ATS	3-1
1-2	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CARK 60–79 UNT · ✓ UNT (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CARK	26	30	56
UNT	28	46	74

1st half: CARK 26, UNT 28 (UNT by 2). The model had UNT by 11.2 and a total of 65.0 (actual 54).

Team stats

CARK		UNT
16-48 33%	Field goals	22-54 41%
6-24 25%	3-pointers	3-18 17%
18-32 56%	Free throws	27-32 84%
37 13 off	Rebounds	38 11 off
8	Assists	13
5	Steals	13
3	Blocks	1
19	Turnovers	10
24	Fouls	25
18	Points in paint	38
11	Fast-break points	15

Players

CARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Luke Moore G	31	8	2	3	2-6	1-3
Cole McCormick G	31	6	8	1	1-4	1-4
Camren Hunter G	27	12	4	0	3-13	2-5
Ty Robinson G	24	4	3	0	1-5	0-4
Malchiah Marable F	21	5	4	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Harry Beauchamp G	20	6	3	0	2-4	2-3
Truman Byrne F	15	2	0	1	1-2	0-1
Javion Guy-King G	13	8	5	2	2-7	0-3
Tyler Lee G	13	3	2	0	1-4	0-1
Parker Applegate G	3	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Ethan Thomas G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Owen Dehrmann, J.C. Shulman, R.J. Newton, Rylie Marshall, Chris Mason, Rashad Bolden

UNT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
David Terrell Jr. G	34	13	6	4	2-6	1-3
Je'Shawn Stevenson G	30	13	6	2	2-11	0-6
Dylan Arnett F	25	9	7	2	4-6	0-0
Reece Robinson F	24	10	9	3	4-6	0-0
Demarion Watson G	19	2	0	1	0-4	0-1
Bench
Cole Franklin G	28	9	3	0	3-6	1-2
Josiah Shackleford F	15	15	3	1	6-8	0-0
Cahmai Crosby G	11	3	1	0	1-4	1-4
Curtis Stinson Jr. G	10	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
EJ Horton G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Will McClendon, Buddy Hammer Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNT -16.5	UNT -18.9	UNT +2.4	W UNT covered
Total	134.5	138.7	Over 4.2	L Under
Projected score	—	CARK 59.9 · UNT 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNT -11.2	UNT -2.0
1H total	65.0	54
1H projected score	CARK 26.9 · UNT 38.1	CARK 26 · UNT 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CARK LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3
UNT WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CARK away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CARK UUO	1-2	33%	0-3
UNT UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CARKlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	1-2 33%
UNTlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

C Arkansas

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UNC	L 54-94	+31.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 11	@ARK	L 56-93	+35.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSAM	L 77-84	+6.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−8.5

ARK

L 56-93

−1.5

SAM

L 77-84

−0.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−9.5

ARK

L 56-93

−9.5

SAM

L 77-84

+9.5

over 1under 2avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Texas

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

over 1under 3avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

C Arkansas @ North Texas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

C Arkansas

North Texas

C Arkansas

North Texas