Prairie View A&M Panthers at Missouri Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 8:00 PM ETMizzou Arena · at Missouri

Final

#54MIZMissouri91▲ winner

Closing lineMIZ -35.5✓ PV covered by 17.5

Closing total166.5Under by 2.5

Season records: Prairie View and Missouri
PV	This season	MIZ
0-2	Record	4-0
1-1	ATS	3-1
1-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PV 64–98 MIZ · ✓ MIZ (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PV	27	46	73
MIZ	49	42	91

1st half: PV 27, MIZ 49 (MIZ by 22). The model had MIZ by 20.0 and a total of 75.7 (actual 76).

Team stats

PV		MIZ
25-66 38%	Field goals	32-62 52%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
14-16 88%	Free throws	17-25 68%
28 6 off	Rebounds	49 12 off
12	Assists	19
10	Steals	7
2	Blocks	1
9	Turnovers	14
19	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	44
12	Fast-break points	17

Players

PV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cory Wells F	38	16	1	2	6-14	0-3
Tai'Reon Joseph G	36	17	3	1	7-19	3-9
Lance Williams G	34	11	2	1	4-10	3-5
Dontae Horne G	34	11	2	7	3-10	0-2
Keeshawn Mason F	12	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Marcel Bryant F	22	16	5	1	4-7	3-4
Ryan Bolton Jr. C	10	0	5	0	0-1	0-0
Jannoy Thomas G	7	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Corey Dunning F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Elijah Mitchell G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Doug Young, Hassane Diallo, Seryee Lewis, Isaiah Foster, Joey Madimba

MIZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mark Mitchell Jr. G	27	10	5	2	3-5	0-0
Sebastian Mack G	25	2	3	0	1-7	0-1
Anthony Robinson II G	25	13	3	5	5-11	1-5
Shawn Phillips Jr. C	19	12	13	1	5-10	0-0
Jevon Porter F	17	12	2	3	3-7	2-6
Bench
Jayden Stone G	28	12	4	5	5-8	2-4
Jacob Crews G	24	20	8	0	7-10	4-5
Luke Northweather F	16	4	6	1	1-2	1-2
T.O. Barrett F	15	6	1	1	2-2	0-0
Nicholas Randall F	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Aaron Rowe, Trent Burns, Trent Pierce, Annor Boateng

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MIZ -35.5	MIZ -33.3	PV +2.2	W PV covered
Total	166.5	161.6	Under 4.9	W Under
Projected score	—	PV 64.1 · MIZ 97.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MIZ -20.0	MIZ -22.0
1H total	75.7	76
1H projected score	PV 27.8 · MIZ 47.8	PV 27 · MIZ 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PV LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
MIZ WLWW	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: PV away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PV OU	1-1	50%	0-2
MIZ UOOU	2-2	50%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PVlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
MIZlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Prairie View

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −9.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WICH	L 62-105	+20.5	L −22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 12	@OKST	L 67-94	+30.5	W +3.5	168.5	U 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WICH

L 62-105

−22.5

OKST

L 67-94

+3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WICH

L 62-105

+10.5

OKST

L 67-94

−7.5

over 1under 1avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Missouri

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOW	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 7	vsSEMO	W 89-84	-25.5	L −20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 9	vsVMI	W 106-68	-23.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMINN	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

+0.5

SEMO

W 89-84

−20.5

VMI

W 106-68

+14.5

MINN

W 83-60

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

−3.5

SEMO

W 89-84

+15.5

VMI

W 106-68

+12.5

MINN

W 83-60

−15.5

over 2under 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Missouri Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Prairie View

Missouri

Prairie View

Missouri