Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Kansas State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 8:00 PM ETBramlage Coliseum · at Kansas St

#108TLSATulsa83final

Final

#83KSUKansas St84▲ winner

Closing lineKSU -12.5✓ TLSA covered by 11.5

Closing total160.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Tulsa and Kansas St
TLSA	This season	KSU
2-0	Record	3-0
1-1	ATS	1-2
1-1	O/U	3-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TLSA 73–86 KSU · ✓ KSU (88%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TLSA	34	49	83
KSU	39	45	84

1st half: TLSA 34, KSU 39 (KSU by 5). The model had KSU by 8.1 and a total of 74.3 (actual 73).

Team stats

TLSA		KSU
27-66 41%	Field goals	30-68 44%
8-30 27%	3-pointers	5-24 21%
21-29 72%	Free throws	19-21 90%
38 14 off	Rebounds	40 12 off
16	Assists	18
7	Steals	5
1	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	10
16	Fouls	19
34	Points in paint	46
10	Fast-break points	26

Players

TLSA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Miles Barnstable G	36	18	9	4	6-16	4-11
Tylen Riley G	26	12	4	4	5-7	0-0
David Green F	26	11	4	0	3-16	2-9
Ade Popoola G	20	5	4	1	1-3	1-3
Tyler Behrend F	12	4	4	1	2-4	0-1
Bench
Myles Rigsby G	24	12	5	2	2-4	0-0
Ian Smikle F	17	7	4	2	3-3	0-0
Romad Dean F	15	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Jaylen Lawal G	14	6	1	1	1-7	1-4
KJ Martin Jr. F	10	6	1	1	3-4	0-1

Did not play: Leon Sifferlin, Carter Benton, Cal Conroy, Terrance Ford Jr., Doryan Onwuchekwa

KSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nate Johnson G	35	5	9	4	2-7	1-4
PJ Haggerty G	32	31	10	3	10-17	0-2
Abdi Bashir Jr. G	28	10	0	2	4-12	2-6
Khamari McGriff F	25	13	9	2	4-6	0-0
Elias Rapieque F	10	2	0	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
David Castillo G	24	12	1	2	4-10	1-5
Dorin Buca C	15	2	4	1	1-2	0-0
CJ Jones G	14	2	1	2	1-4	0-3
Andrej Kostic G	10	5	2	2	2-5	1-3
Taj Manning F	7	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Stephen Osei, Mobi Ikegwuruka, Exavier Wilson, Marcus Johnson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KSU -12.5	KSU -13.7	KSU +1.2	L TLSA covered
Total	160.5	158.6	Under 1.9	L Over
Projected score	—	TLSA 72.5 · KSU 86.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KSU -8.1	KSU -5.0
1H total	74.3	73
1H projected score	TLSA 33.1 · KSU 41.2	TLSA 34 · KSU 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0
KSU WLL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UO	1-1	50%	2-0
KSU OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSAlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
KSUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tulsa

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsURI	W 82-65	+3.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 12	@ORU	W 88-87	-5.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

W 82-65

+20.5

ORU

W 88-87

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

W 82-65

−6.5

ORU

W 88-87

+14.5

over 1under 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas St

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +13.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

over 3under 0avg +13.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Kansas State Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Tulsa

Kansas St

Tulsa

Kansas St