Valparaiso Beacons at Cleveland State Vikings: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETWolstein Center · at Cleveland St

#176VALValparaiso90▲ winner

Final

Closing lineCLE -2.5✓ VAL covered by 17.5

Closing total158.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Valparaiso and Cleveland St
VAL	This season	CLE
3-1	Record	1-3
2-2	ATS	3-1
1-3	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VAL 77–79 CLE · ✗ CLE (55%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
VAL	39	51	90
CLE	27	48	75

1st half: VAL 39, CLE 27 (VAL by 12). The model had CLE by 0.7 and a total of 73.0 (actual 66).

Team stats

VAL		CLE
34-63 54%	Field goals	25-55 45%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	6-25 24%
15-20 75%	Free throws	19-23 83%
39 13 off	Rebounds	23 5 off
15	Assists	9
6	Steals	3
7	Blocks	1
9	Turnovers	9
21	Fouls	18
48	Points in paint	36
11	Fast-break points	9

Players

VAL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rakim Chaney G	38	23	4	7	9-12	3-4
Shon Tupuola F	33	21	7	0	8-10	0-0
Isaiah Barnes G	32	11	3	1	4-9	0-3
JT Pettigrew F	19	5	4	1	2-5	1-3
Mark Brown Jr. G	18	3	2	1	1-3	1-3
Bench
Justus McNair G	26	21	6	2	8-15	1-5
Carter Hopoi F	21	3	7	3	1-6	1-3
Sader Servilus G	11	3	2	0	1-2	0-1
Nick Lombardi G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Kyonte Thomas G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Camden Webster, Joe Vick, Brody Whitaker, Jayden Watson, Kobe Walker, Tucker Tornatta, Owen Dease

CLE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josiah Harris F	31	6	8	7	3-8	0-3
Dayan Nessah G	31	13	3	0	5-12	0-2
Tre Beard G	30	22	1	1	7-12	6-10
Foster Wonders G	24	2	1	0	1-6	0-5
Jaidon Lipscomb G	7	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Preist Ryan F	25	9	3	0	2-2	0-0
Chevalier Emery G	18	14	2	1	4-7	0-2
Holden Pierre-Louis F	10	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Manny Hill G	9	3	1	0	1-2	0-0
Kamari Jones G	7	2	0	0	0-1	0-1
Ivan Spirov F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Lucas Burton F	3	4	1	0	2-2	0-0

Did not play: David Giddens, Waqo Tessema, Kevo St. Hilaire

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CLE -2.5	CLE -1.4	VAL +1.1	W VAL covered
Total	158.5	155.9	Under 2.6	L Over
Projected score	—	VAL 77.2 · CLE 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CLE -0.7	VAL -12.0
1H total	73.0	66
1H projected score	VAL 36.2 · CLE 36.9	VAL 39 · CLE 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAL LLWW	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1
CLE WLWW	3-1	75%	—	—

Venue/role: VAL away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAL UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1
CLE OOOO	4-0	100%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VALlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
CLElast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VAL 0–1 CLECLE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · VAL 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2024-25	CLE 75 @ VAL 67	VAL -3.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Valparaiso

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEIU	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	@UK	L 59-107	+32.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsNICH	W 68-63	-2.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsBRY	W 68-50	-6.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−2.5

L 59-107

−15.5

NICH

W 68-63

+2.5

BRY

W 68-50

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−15.5

L 59-107

+8.5

NICH

W 68-63

−13.5

BRY

W 68-50

−25.5

over 1under 3avg −11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cleveland St

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +21.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LUC	L 88-91	+17.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 10	@NU	L 63-110	+23.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsKENT	L 95-102	+11.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsRAD	W 87-82	+8.5	W +13.5	162.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+14.5

L 63-110

−23.5

KENT

L 95-102

+4.5

RAD

W 87-82

+13.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+27.5

L 63-110

+21.5

KENT

L 95-102

+31.5

RAD

W 87-82

+6.5

over 4under 0avg +21.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Valparaiso Beacons at Cleveland State Vikings

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Valparaiso

Cleveland St

Valparaiso

Cleveland St