Nicholls Colonels at Valparaiso Beacons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ETAthletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso

#285NICHNicholls63final

Final

#176VALValparaiso68▲ winner

Closing lineVAL -2.5✓ VAL covered by 2.5

Closing total144.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Nicholls and Valparaiso
NICH	This season	VAL
0-2	Record	1-1
1-1	ATS	0-2
0-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NICH 72–74 VAL · ✓ VAL (57%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NICH	19	44	63
VAL	25	43	68

1st half: NICH 19, VAL 25 (VAL by 6). The model had VAL by 1.1 and a total of 68.0 (actual 44).

Team stats

NICH		VAL
22-51 43%	Field goals	22-53 42%
12-30 40%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
7-13 54%	Free throws	17-23 74%
30 8 off	Rebounds	35 11 off
10	Assists	10
3	Steals	5
4	Blocks	4
15	Turnovers	9
21	Fouls	13
18	Points in paint	22
12	Fast-break points	6

Players

NICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaylen Searles G	39	10	7	2	3-10	3-8
Trae English G	35	14	4	2	4-12	3-8
Sincere Malone F	30	11	4	2	5-9	1-3
Christian Winborne G	25	6	1	0	2-6	2-6
Grant Sanders F	17	0	2	2	0-1	0-0
Bench
Jalik Dunkley F	33	6	7	1	3-5	0-0
Zaiden Cross G	14	11	2	0	4-6	3-5
Jalin Rice G	7	5	0	1	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Jordan Matthews, Chaydon Stone, Kevin Pazmino, Domanic Betancourt, Nick Krass, Zee Hamoda

VAL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rakim Chaney G	35	24	6	3	8-11	4-5
Shon Tupuola F	21	10	7	0	3-5	0-0
Carter Hopoi F	18	2	1	1	1-5	0-1
Isaiah Barnes G	13	0	2	1	0-6	0-2
Mark Brown Jr. G	11	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Bench
Owen Dease F	30	13	1	2	5-10	1-3
Brody Whitaker G	26	9	7	1	2-4	1-1
JT Pettigrew F	22	4	2	1	1-3	0-0
Tucker Tornatta F	16	6	3	0	2-4	1-1
Justus McNair G	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson, Camden Webster, Joe Vick, Kobe Walker, Kyonte Thomas, Sader Servilus

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VAL -2.5	VAL -2.1	NICH +0.4	L VAL covered
Total	144.5	145.2	Over 0.7	L Under
Projected score	—	NICH 71.5 · VAL 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAL -1.1	VAL -6.0
1H total	68.0	44
1H projected score	NICH 33.5 · VAL 34.6	NICH 19 · VAL 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NICH WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-0
VAL LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NICH away, as underdog; VAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NICH UU	0-2	0%	0-2
VAL UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NICHlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
VALlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nicholls

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −21.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UK	L 51-77	+31.5	W +5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	@EIU	L 57-65	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-77

+5.5

EIU

L 57-65

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-77

−29.5

EIU

L 57-65

−13.5

over 0under 2avg −21.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Valparaiso

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEIU	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	@UK	L 59-107	+32.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−2.5

L 59-107

−15.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−15.5

L 59-107

+8.5

over 1under 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nicholls Colonels at Valparaiso Beacons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Nicholls

Valparaiso

Nicholls

Valparaiso