Youngstown State Penguins at Toledo Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETSavage Arena · at Toledo

Final

#157TOLToledo92▲ winner

Closing lineTOL -1.5✓ TOL covered by 15.5

Closing total160.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Youngstown St and Toledo
YSU	This season	TOL
1-2	Record	2-2
2-1	ATS	1-3
2-1	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: YSU 81–79 TOL · ✗ YSU (54%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
YSU	35	40	75
TOL	41	51	92

1st half: YSU 35, TOL 41 (TOL by 6). The model had YSU by 0.9 and a total of 74.8 (actual 76).

Team stats

YSU		TOL
28-57 49%	Field goals	32-60 53%
11-29 38%	3-pointers	6-15 40%
8-12 67%	Free throws	22-26 85%
28 10 off	Rebounds	32 11 off
15	Assists	18
6	Steals	9
3	Blocks	1
21	Turnovers	12
23	Fouls	14
32	Points in paint	52
14	Fast-break points	17

Players

YSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rich Rolf F	28	8	2	1	3-7	0-4
Bryson Dawkins G	28	16	5	3	6-12	3-6
Jason Nelson G	23	5	2	2	2-6	1-3
Cris Carroll F	19	14	3	1	5-10	3-6
Imanuel Zorgvol F	16	6	0	0	2-2	1-1
Bench
Vlad Salaridze F	24	13	5	1	6-8	1-3
Drew King G	23	7	3	5	2-5	0-0
Cam Polak G	17	3	3	1	1-2	1-2
Jaiden Haynes G	11	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Tae Blackshear G	10	3	1	0	1-3	1-2
Shaheed Solebo G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tyler Robinett, Derrick Anderson, Markus Navarra, Connor Swider

TOL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sean Craig F	34	18	12	0	7-11	0-1
Sonny Wilson G	33	11	3	5	4-14	1-3
Leroy Blyden Jr. G	31	18	2	5	5-8	3-3
Kyler Vanderjagt G	26	7	1	1	2-6	0-3
Austin Parks C	23	10	5	3	3-6	0-0
Bench
Chris Riddle F	19	9	3	3	4-7	1-4
Jaylan Ouwinga F	16	7	1	1	3-3	1-1
Will James Jr. G	9	10	3	0	3-3	0-0
Mynor Strong G	8	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
London Praytor F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tyler Ode, Toby Nwokolo, Phoenix Glassnor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TOL -1.5	YSU -1.2	YSU +2.7	L TOL covered
Total	160.5	159.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	YSU 80.5 · TOL 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	YSU -0.9	TOL -6.0
1H total	74.8	76
1H projected score	YSU 37.9 · TOL 37	YSU 35 · TOL 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
YSU LWW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1
TOL LLWL	1-3	25%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: YSU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
YSU UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
TOL UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YSUlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
TOLlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

YSU 1–0 TOLYSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · YSU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2024-25	TOL 87 @ YSU 93	YSU -1.5	YSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Youngstown St

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +9.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

over 2under 1avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Toledo

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

over 1under 3avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Youngstown State Penguins at Toledo Rockets

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Youngstown St

Toledo

Youngstown St

Toledo