Detroit Mercy Titans at Toledo Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETSavage Arena · at Toledo

Final

#157TOLToledo90▲ winner

Closing lineTOL -10.5✓ DETM covered by 3.5

Closing total159.5Over by 13.5

Season records: Detroit Mercy and Toledo
DETM	This season	TOL
0-2	Record	1-2
0-2	ATS	1-2
2-0	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DETM 75–83 TOL · ✓ TOL (76%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DETM	37	46	83
TOL	41	49	90

1st half: DETM 37, TOL 41 (TOL by 4). The model had TOL by 4.7 and a total of 74.3 (actual 78).

Team stats

DETM		TOL
32-71 45%	Field goals	31-59 53%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
11-17 65%	Free throws	21-30 70%
37 15 off	Rebounds	39 11 off
13	Assists	20
6	Steals	6
2	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	14
24	Fouls	17
44	Points in paint	44
14	Fast-break points	10

Players

DETM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Orlando Lovejoy G	31	18	1	5	7-15	0-1
TJ Nadeau G	28	15	5	2	6-10	3-6
Tyler Spratt G	23	8	8	0	3-10	0-4
Legend Geeter F	23	3	4	1	1-3	0-0
Nate Johnson G	16	2	4	1	1-6	0-2
Bench
Lance Stone G	19	11	2	2	3-6	3-6
Ayden Carter G	19	12	6	1	5-7	1-1
London Maiden F	14	7	1	0	3-6	0-0
Je'kel Cotton G	13	5	2	1	2-4	1-3
Keshawn Fisher G	11	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Xavier Istomin-Monroe C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ryan Kalambay, Zak Abdalla, Jared Lary

TOL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Leroy Blyden Jr. G	39	20	3	7	7-15	3-6
Sonny Wilson G	37	18	6	5	5-12	1-5
Sean Craig F	37	17	6	4	5-8	1-3
Kyler Vanderjagt G	32	11	5	0	4-9	1-5
Austin Parks C	26	17	7	3	7-7	0-0
Bench
Jaylan Ouwinga F	15	2	3	0	1-2	0-1
Mynor Strong G	9	2	1	0	1-4	0-3
Will James Jr. G	3	3	0	1	1-2	1-2
Tyler Ode G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
London Praytor F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Toby Nwokolo, Chris Riddle, Phoenix Glassnor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TOL -10.5	TOL -8.1	DETM +2.4	W DETM covered
Total	159.5	158.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	DETM 75.3 · TOL 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TOL -4.7	TOL -4.0
1H total	74.3	78
1H projected score	DETM 34.8 · TOL 39.5	DETM 37 · TOL 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DETM LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2
TOL LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: DETM away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DETM OO	2-0	100%	0-2
TOL UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETMlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%
TOLlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DETM 0–3 TOLTOL leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 3 meetings · DETM 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	TOL 82 @ DETM 67	DETM +11.5	TOL W
Nov 6, 2023-24	DETM 60 @ TOL 94	TOL -14.5	TOL W
Nov 13, 2021-22	DETM 73 @ TOL 81	TOL -8.5	DETM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Detroit Mercy

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −10.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +22 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UIC	L 71-91	+9.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 7	@ND	L 70-102	+21.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UIC

L 71-91

−10.5

L 70-102

−10.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UIC

L 71-91

+19.5

L 70-102

+24.5

over 2under 0avg +22 ptslonger = bigger margin

Toledo

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

over 0under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Detroit Mercy Titans at Toledo Rockets

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Detroit Mercy

Toledo

Detroit Mercy

Toledo