Bryant Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM ETAthletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso

#290BRYBryant50final

Final

#176VALValparaiso68▲ winner

Closing lineVAL -6.5✓ VAL covered by 11.5

Closing total143.5Under by 25.5

Season records: Bryant and Valparaiso
BRY	This season	VAL
1-2	Record	2-1
1-2	ATS	1-2
1-2	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BRY 74–77 VAL · ✓ VAL (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BRY	30	20	50
VAL	22	46	68

1st half: BRY 30, VAL 22 (BRY by 8). The model had VAL by 1.4 and a total of 70.5 (actual 52).

Team stats

BRY		VAL
18-65 28%	Field goals	22-56 39%
6-29 21%	3-pointers	8-21 38%
8-9 89%	Free throws	16-25 64%
46 19 off	Rebounds	42 13 off
9	Assists	12
7	Steals	7
2	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	7
21	Fouls	13
22	Points in paint	26
7	Fast-break points	3

Players

BRY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Timofei Rudovskii F	34	13	4	1	4-14	3-11
Ashley Sims II F	31	6	5	2	3-6	0-1
Ty Tabales G	27	6	3	1	1-10	1-6
Quincy Allen G	20	4	4	1	1-8	0-4
Keegan Harvey F	17	5	6	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Lennart Weber F	22	6	6	2	3-10	0-2
Aaron Davis III G	13	3	2	0	1-6	1-4
Khalil Williams G	12	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jakai Robinson G	10	2	3	2	1-1	0-0
Ethane Bourgade F	8	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Langston Bailey G	2	5	1	0	2-3	1-1
Michael DeOrsey PG	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jaheim Nyam G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jason Sepe G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Frankie Vassalluzzo G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Reed Woerner, Daniel Akoue, Gio Sanford, Joe Green

VAL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rakim Chaney G	33	18	8	3	6-11	4-7
Shon Tupuola F	26	14	11	0	6-9	0-0
Mark Brown Jr. G	24	2	6	1	0-9	0-6
Carter Hopoi F	19	0	2	4	0-4	0-0
Isaiah Barnes G	15	1	2	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Owen Dease F	24	10	4	0	4-9	2-4
JT Pettigrew F	22	13	4	2	3-7	1-1
Brody Whitaker G	17	3	0	0	1-3	1-2
Tucker Tornatta F	12	5	2	0	1-1	0-0
Justus McNair G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Nick Lombardi G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Camden Webster G	1	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Joe Vick G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Kyonte Thomas G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kobe Walker, Sader Servilus, Jayden Watson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VAL -6.5	VAL -2.6	BRY +3.9	L VAL covered
Total	143.5	150.5	Over 7.0	L Under
Projected score	—	BRY 73.9 · VAL 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAL -1.4	BRY -8.0
1H total	70.5	52
1H projected score	BRY 34.5 · VAL 36	BRY 30 · VAL 22

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRY LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2
VAL LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: BRY away, as underdog; VAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRY UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
VAL UOU	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRYlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
VALlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bryant

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SIE	L 66-82	+13.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@GT	L 45-74	+15.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 12	vsDART	W 82-75	-1.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 66-82

−2.5

L 45-74

−13.5

DART

W 82-75

+5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 66-82

−0.5

L 45-74

−19.5

DART

W 82-75

+5.5

over 1under 2avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Valparaiso

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEIU	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	@UK	L 59-107	+32.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsNICH	W 68-63	-2.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−2.5

L 59-107

−15.5

NICH

W 68-63

+2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−15.5

L 59-107

+8.5

NICH

W 68-63

−13.5

over 1under 2avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bryant Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bryant

Valparaiso

Bryant

Valparaiso