Alcorn State Braves at Oklahoma Sooners: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 2:00 PM ETLloyd Noble Center · at Oklahoma

#360ALCNAlcorn St53final

Final

#31OUOklahoma72▲ winner

Closing lineOU -31.5✓ ALCN covered by 12.5

Closing total160.5Under by 35.5

Season records: Alcorn St and Oklahoma
ALCN	This season	OU
0-6	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	1-4
4-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALCN 67–96 OU · ✓ OU (99%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALCN	33	20	53
OU	35	37	72

1st half: ALCN 33, OU 35 (OU by 2). The model had OU by 17.0 and a total of 76.3 (actual 68).

Team stats

ALCN		OU
20-53 38%	Field goals	22-66 33%
8-18 44%	3-pointers	9-31 29%
5-8 63%	Free throws	19-28 68%
38 7 off	Rebounds	46 18 off
10	Assists	13
5	Steals	10
6	Blocks	1
19	Turnovers	7
20	Fouls	12
20	Points in paint	24
2	Fast-break points	15

Players

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jameel Morris G	30	4	3	2	2-9	0-2
Tycen McDaniels F	26	12	6	1	5-10	0-0
Omari Hamilton F	22	3	5	2	1-2	1-1
Nick Woodard SF	22	9	3	1	3-5	3-3
Shane Lancaster G	14	5	0	1	2-3	1-2
Bench
Bryson Calamese PG	20	11	3	1	4-8	2-4
Davian Williams PG	20	3	4	2	1-7	1-4
Mike Jones SG	17	2	8	0	1-3	0-0
Travis Roberts SG	15	2	5	0	0-2	0-1
William Henderson F	10	2	0	0	1-4	0-1
Jeremy Ellis PF	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ray Glasgow, Alex Hawkins

OU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nijel Pack G	36	17	2	5	5-17	5-12
Derrion Reid F	33	16	8	2	5-11	2-4
Xzayvier Brown G	26	11	4	1	5-10	1-3
Mohamed Wague F	22	6	8	0	1-3	0-1
Tae Davis F	19	7	4	1	3-8	0-2
Bench
Dayton Forsythe G	23	1	5	2	0-4	0-2
Jadon Jones G	16	7	3	1	1-4	0-3
Kai Rogers F	13	4	6	0	1-3	0-0
Jeff Nwankwo G	12	3	4	1	1-6	1-4

Did not play: Kuol Atak, Andreas Holst, Reid Lovelace, Alec Blair, Jake Hansen, Finley Keeffe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OU -31.5	OU -28.5	ALCN +3.0	W ALCN covered
Total	160.5	162.9	Over 2.4	L Under
Projected score	—	ALCN 67.2 · OU 95.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -17.0	OU -2.0
1H total	76.3	68
1H projected score	ALCN 29.6 · OU 46.7	ALCN 33 · OU 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-3	3-3
OU WLLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: ALCN away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN OUOUO	4-2	67%	0-6
OU OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCNlast 6	0-6 0%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%
OUlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ALCN 0–2 OUOU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · OU has won the last 2 meetings · ALCN 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	ALCN 78 @ OU 94	OU -31.5	ALCN W
Dec 22, 2021-22	ALCN 48 @ OU 72	OU -26.5	ALCN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

over 4under 2avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

over 2under 3avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alcorn St @ Oklahoma

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Oklahoma

Alcorn St

Oklahoma