Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Oklahoma Sooners: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ETHoward McCasland Field House · at Oklahoma

Final

#31OUOklahoma95▲ winner

Closing lineOU -36.5✓ UAPB covered by 10.5

Closing total168.5Under by 4.5

Season records: AR-Pine Bluff and Oklahoma
UAPB	This season	OU
0-3	Record	1-1
1-2	ATS	1-1
1-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UAPB 65–97 OU · ✓ OU (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UAPB	31	38	69
OU	42	53	95

1st half: UAPB 31, OU 42 (OU by 11). The model had OU by 19.4 and a total of 76.1 (actual 73).

Team stats

UAPB		OU
25-63 40%	Field goals	33-67 49%
7-25 28%	3-pointers	11-30 37%
12-15 80%	Free throws	18-24 75%
31 14 off	Rebounds	44 19 off
12	Assists	16
8	Steals	12
4	Blocks	2
15	Turnovers	9
19	Fouls	14
28	Points in paint	40
14	Fast-break points	14

Players

UAPB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quion Williams G	38	11	12	3	3-12	0-4
Alex Mirhosseini G	37	14	3	2	5-20	4-14
Milhan Charles G	35	15	5	2	4-5	0-0
Jaquan Scott F	32	14	4	1	6-15	2-3
Trevon Payton G	31	11	3	2	5-7	1-2
Bench
Kyle Brown F	8	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
Ahmad Johnson G	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jai'chaunn Hayes G	7	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Dennis Asoro F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Travis Pourciau F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ramel Lloyd Jr., Anthony Sellars, Trejon Ware, Jahmari Hamilton-Brown, Harrison Pickett

OU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xzayvier Brown G	33	19	4	3	7-13	0-4
Tae Davis F	31	13	15	4	5-13	0-2
Nijel Pack G	23	15	3	3	5-8	5-7
Derrion Reid F	23	12	2	0	5-8	0-2
Mohamed Wague F	21	6	6	1	1-3	0-0
Bench
Dayton Forsythe G	22	15	1	1	4-8	3-6
Jeff Nwankwo G	21	7	5	2	3-7	1-3
Kuol Atak F	14	5	1	0	2-5	1-4
Kai Rogers F	11	0	1	2	0-0	0-0
Reid Lovelace G	1	3	0	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Andreas Holst, Alec Blair, Jake Hansen, Finley Keeffe, Jadon Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OU -36.5	OU -32.2	UAPB +4.3	W UAPB covered
Total	168.5	162.5	Under 6.0	W Under
Projected score	—	UAPB 65.2 · OU 97.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -19.4	OU -11.0
1H total	76.1	73
1H projected score	UAPB 28.3 · OU 47.7	UAPB 31 · OU 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAPB LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
OU WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UAPB away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAPB UUO	1-2	33%	0-3
OU OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAPBlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
OUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UAPB 0–2 OUOU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · OU has won the last 2 meetings · UAPB 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2023-24	UAPB 86 @ OU 107	OU -27.5	UAPB W
Nov 11, 2022-23	UAPB 58 @ OU 66	OU -27	UAPB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

AR-Pine Bluff

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WASH	L 50-94	+34.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	@PORT	L 74-83	+12.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 157
Nov 8	@LMU	L 72-94	+19.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WASH

L 50-94

−9.5

PORT

L 74-83

+3.5

LMU

L 72-94

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WASH

L 50-94

−16.5

PORT

L 74-83

−7.5

LMU

L 72-94

+8.5

over 1under 2avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

over 1under 1avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Oklahoma Sooners

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

AR-Pine Bluff

Oklahoma

AR-Pine Bluff

Oklahoma