SE Louisiana Lions vs Navy Midshipmen: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 12:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · Neutral site

#253SELASE Louisiana69▲ winner

Final

#199NAVYNavy65final

Closing lineNAVY -3.5✓ SELA covered by 7.5

Closing total136.5Under by 2.5

Season records: SE Louisiana and Navy
SELA	This season	NAVY
1-5	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SELA 68–71 NAVY · ✗ NAVY (60%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SELA	42	27	69
NAVY	27	38	65

1st half: SELA 42, NAVY 27 (SELA by 15). The model had NAVY by 1.7 and a total of 65.1 (actual 69).

Team stats

SELA		NAVY
24-45 53%	Field goals	21-49 43%
9-15 60%	3-pointers	4-14 29%
12-15 80%	Free throws	19-28 68%
32 6 off	Rebounds	26 8 off
15	Assists	10
6	Steals	9
3	Blocks	1
17	Turnovers	12
23	Fouls	14
20	Points in paint	30
3	Fast-break points	18

Players

SELA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaiah Gaines F	28	16	5	1	7-8	0-0
Jeremy Elyzee G	28	7	3	1	3-11	0-2
CJ Booker PG	17	3	0	1	1-3	1-2
Jaiden Lawrence G	14	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Ethan Pickett G	12	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Seth Jones G	25	6	7	3	2-5	2-3
Jalen Forrest G	25	12	5	2	2-4	1-2
Peter Hemschemeier G	22	19	1	3	7-10	5-5
Makhi Myles F	10	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ubong-Abasi Etim C	9	2	5	1	1-1	0-0
Kyle Edison G	9	2	2	3	0-2	0-1
Garrett Shoemaker F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cody Al-Naziat, Amir Chaney, Ahmed Essahaty

NAVY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Austin Benigni G	40	24	3	2	7-16	0-1
Mike Woods F	37	10	6	1	4-10	0-1
Donovan Draper F	33	3	7	5	1-4	0-2
Jinwoo Kim G	32	8	3	2	2-9	1-5
Aidan Kehoe C	30	7	4	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Cam Cole G	16	13	1	0	5-6	3-4
Jordan Pennick G	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Cooper Jackson F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Luke Morgan, Jordan McConnell, Jerry Ashley Jr., Steven McLeod, C.J. Kearns, Colin Pollock, Julien King, Matt Gaffney, Owen Gray, Tobi Raji, David Burnett, Davyn de Jongh and 5 more

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NAVY -3.5	NAVY -3.0	SELA +0.5	W SELA covered
Total	136.5	138.8	Over 2.3	L Under
Projected score	—	SELA 67.9 · NAVY 70.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NAVY -1.7	SELA -15.0
1H total	65.1	69
1H projected score	SELA 31.7 · NAVY 33.4	SELA 42 · NAVY 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SELA LWWLW	3-3	50%	1-0	2-3
NAVY WWLWL	4-3	57%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: SELA neutral site, as underdog; NAVY neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA UUUUO	2-4	33%	1-5
NAVY UUOUO	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELAlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
NAVYlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsGWEB	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+2.5

over 2under 4avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Navy

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PRES	W 76-55	-3.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 7	vsYALE	L 68-97	+5.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@PSU	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 18	@UNC	L 61-73	+26.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsNJIT	W 86-70	-17.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 26	vsGWEB	W 84-51	-10.5	W +22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	@UNCW	L 57-87	+8.5	L −21.5	138.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

+17.5

YALE

L 68-97

−23.5

PSU

L 71-80

+2.5

UNC

L 61-73

+14.5

NJIT

W 86-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 84-51

+22.5

UNCW

L 57-87

−21.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

−10.5

YALE

L 68-97

+17.5

PSU

L 71-80

−4.5

UNC

L 61-73

−26.5

NJIT

W 86-70

+15.5

GWEB

W 84-51

−18.5

UNCW

L 57-87

+5.5

over 3under 4avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Louisiana Lions vs Navy Midshipmen

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Navy

SE Louisiana

Navy