Navy Midshipmen at UNC Wilmington Seahawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · at UNC Wilmington

#199NAVYNavy57final

Final

Closing lineUNCW -8.5✓ UNCW covered by 21.5

Closing total138.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Navy and UNC Wilmington
NAVY	This season	UNCW
3-3	Record	4-1
4-2	ATS	3-2
2-4	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NAVY 68–74 UNCW · ✓ UNCW (70%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NAVY	19	38	57
UNCW	45	42	87

1st half: NAVY 19, UNCW 45 (UNCW by 26). The model had UNCW by 3.5 and a total of 66.9 (actual 64).

Team stats

NAVY		UNCW
21-64 33%	Field goals	32-58 55%
5-25 20%	3-pointers	10-21 48%
10-11 91%	Free throws	13-17 76%
26 14 off	Rebounds	46 16 off
9	Assists	15
6	Steals	6
0	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	15
13	Fouls	15
26	Points in paint	34
12	Fast-break points	7

Players

NAVY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Austin Benigni G	35	25	1	3	8-20	1-5
Donovan Draper F	30	2	6	0	1-4	0-2
Jinwoo Kim G	30	16	1	0	6-14	4-7
Mike Woods F	30	2	6	2	1-7	0-2
Aidan Kehoe C	27	8	7	0	4-6	0-0
Bench
Jordan Pennick G	18	0	0	2	0-4	0-4
Cam Cole G	11	2	1	2	0-5	0-3
Cooper Jackson F	7	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
David Burnett G	5	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Nyles Howard G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Cam Cormany G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Sam Krist G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: C.J. Kearns, Julian Gabbidon, Luke Morgan, Jordan McConnell, Jerry Ashley Jr., Steven McLeod, Colin Pollock, Matt Gaffney, Owen Gray, Tobi Raji, Davyn de Jongh, Julien King and 1 more

UNCW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian May G	30	17	8	3	6-10	5-7
Nolan Hodge G	29	10	2	4	3-5	1-3
Noah Ross G	26	15	9	1	7-11	0-1
Greedy Williams G	20	1	1	1	0-3	0-1
Patrick Wessler C	18	17	11	1	7-10	0-0
Bench
Madison Durr G	24	13	2	4	4-7	3-5
Makoi Mabor Makoi F	22	4	7	0	2-2	0-0
Gavin Walsh F	20	10	5	1	3-8	1-2
Makel Smith G	5	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Grady Whitt G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
JoJo Fullwood G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Adam Tokpah, Matija Prodanovic, CJ Luster II, Jahnathan Lamothe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCW -8.5	UNCW -6.0	NAVY +2.5	L UNCW covered
Total	138.5	142.8	Over 4.3	W Over
Projected score	—	NAVY 68.4 · UNCW 74.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -3.5	UNCW -26.0
1H total	66.9	64
1H projected score	NAVY 31.7 · UNCW 35.2	NAVY 19 · UNCW 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LWWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	2-1
UNCW LLWWW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; UNCW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OUUOU	2-4	33%	3-3
UNCW OUUOU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVYlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
UNCWlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Navy

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PRES	W 76-55	-3.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 7	vsYALE	L 68-97	+5.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@PSU	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 18	@UNC	L 61-73	+26.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsNJIT	W 86-70	-17.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 26	vsGWEB	W 84-51	-10.5	W +22.5	153.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

+17.5

YALE

L 68-97

−23.5

PSU

L 71-80

+2.5

UNC

L 61-73

+14.5

NJIT

W 86-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 84-51

+22.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

−10.5

YALE

L 68-97

+17.5

PSU

L 71-80

−4.5

UNC

L 61-73

−26.5

NJIT

W 86-70

+15.5

GWEB

W 84-51

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Wilmington

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsSELA	W 70-57	-11.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

SELA

W 70-57

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

SELA

W 70-57

−10.5

over 2under 3avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Navy @ UNC Wilmington

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Navy

UNC Wilmington

Navy

UNC Wilmington