UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Radford Highlanders: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETThe Dedmon Center · at Radford

Final

#246RADRadford73final

Closing lineUNCW -4.5✓ UNCW covered by 3.5

Closing total151.5Over by 2.5

Season records: UNC Wilmington and Radford
UNCW	This season	RAD
2-1	Record	1-4
1-2	ATS	1-4
1-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNCW 78–70 RAD · ✓ UNCW (75%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNCW	31	50	81
RAD	27	46	73

1st half: UNCW 31, RAD 27 (UNCW by 4). The model had UNCW by 4.7 and a total of 69.5 (actual 58).

Team stats

UNCW		RAD
30-58 52%	Field goals	23-56 41%
9-21 43%	3-pointers	12-32 38%
12-21 57%	Free throws	15-19 79%
38 14 off	Rebounds	25 8 off
18	Assists	10
6	Steals	7
1	Blocks	3
15	Turnovers	14
19	Fouls	20
40	Points in paint	20
9	Fast-break points	13

Players

UNCW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nolan Hodge G	34	18	7	2	4-9	4-6
Christian May G	33	11	3	2	4-9	2-5
Noah Ross G	32	10	2	2	4-8	2-4
Greedy Williams G	22	5	2	6	2-2	1-1
Patrick Wessler C	20	7	6	1	3-5	0-0
Bench
Madison Durr G	26	11	2	5	4-9	0-1
Gavin Walsh F	24	15	3	0	7-14	0-4
Makoi Mabor Makoi F	9	4	2	0	2-2	0-0

Did not play: Adam Tokpah, Matija Prodanovic, JoJo Fullwood, Makel Smith, CJ Luster II, Grady Whitt, Jahnathan Lamothe

RAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Del Jones G	34	27	3	3	9-17	3-7
Dennis Parker Jr. G	32	27	4	0	8-16	6-10
Tyson Brown F	27	0	6	2	0-1	0-0
Mari Jordan G	19	4	0	1	1-5	0-2
Lukas Walls G	17	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Jaylon Johnson G	25	2	2	2	0-5	0-4
Brennan Rigsby Jr. G	22	8	2	1	3-6	2-5
Louie Jordan F	12	3	1	0	1-3	1-3
Frederik Erichsen F	7	2	0	0	1-3	0-1
Gabriel Ferreira C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bradley Land G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Diogo Alves, Warren Keel Jr., Zion Walker

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCW -4.5	UNCW -7.6	UNCW +3.1	W UNCW covered
Total	151.5	148.3	Under 3.2	L Over
Projected score	—	UNCW 78 · RAD 70.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -4.7	UNCW -4.0
1H total	69.5	58
1H projected score	UNCW 37.1 · RAD 32.4	UNCW 31 · RAD 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCW LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
RAD LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: UNCW away, as favorite; RAD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCW OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
RAD OOUOU	3-2	60%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCWlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
RADlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Wilmington

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

L W W

2 straight wins2 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

over 1under 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Radford

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −15.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIU	W 80-75	-16.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 11	@UNC	L 74-89	+20.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsWRST	L 59-92	-6.5	L −39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsCLE	L 82-87	-8.5	L −13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 18	@SC	L 58-87	+10.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

−11.5

UNC

L 74-89

+5.5

WRST

L 59-92

−39.5

CLE

L 82-87

−13.5

L 58-87

−18.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −15.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

+3.5

UNC

L 74-89

+0.5

WRST

L 59-92

−5.5

CLE

L 82-87

+6.5

L 58-87

−8.5

over 3under 2avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNC Wilmington @ Radford

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Wilmington

Radford

UNC Wilmington

Radford