SE Louisiana Lions at UNC Wilmington Seahawks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 7:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · at UNC Wilmington

Final

Closing lineUNCW -11.5✓ UNCW covered by 1.5

Closing total137.5Under by 10.5

Season records: SE Louisiana and UNC Wilmington
SELA	This season	UNCW
0-4	Record	3-1
2-2	ATS	2-2
1-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SELA 64–75 UNCW · ✓ UNCW (83%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SELA	33	24	57
UNCW	27	43	70

1st half: SELA 33, UNCW 27 (SELA by 6). The model had UNCW by 6.5 and a total of 64.8 (actual 60).

Team stats

SELA		UNCW
23-58 40%	Field goals	21-47 45%
5-29 17%	3-pointers	5-21 24%
6-12 50%	Free throws	23-30 77%
28 8 off	Rebounds	40 9 off
10	Assists	11
6	Steals	3
1	Blocks	2
7	Turnovers	10
21	Fouls	13
34	Points in paint	26
7	Fast-break points	12

Players

SELA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jeremy Elyzee G	33	21	3	2	9-15	1-4
Isaiah Gaines F	32	7	4	3	3-7	0-1
Jaiden Lawrence G	19	3	3	1	1-5	0-4
Ethan Pickett G	17	6	1	0	3-5	0-2
CJ Booker PG	17	3	1	1	1-4	1-3
Bench
Jalen Forrest G	23	7	2	1	2-3	1-2
Seth Jones G	23	3	2	0	1-7	1-6
Peter Hemschemeier G	19	2	2	2	1-8	0-6
Makhi Myles F	9	3	4	0	1-2	1-1
Ubong-Abasi Etim C	8	2	3	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Kyle Edison, Ahmed Essahaty, Cody Al-Naziat, Amir Chaney, Garrett Shoemaker

UNCW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greedy Williams G	34	12	3	2	2-7	0-3
Christian May G	32	13	2	1	4-9	1-5
Nolan Hodge G	30	14	10	1	5-12	2-7
Noah Ross G	25	8	3	1	3-6	2-3
Patrick Wessler C	22	4	8	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Gavin Walsh F	27	7	6	2	2-5	0-2
Madison Durr G	26	12	4	4	3-5	0-1
Makoi Mabor Makoi F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jahnathan Lamothe, CJ Luster II, Makel Smith, JoJo Fullwood, Grady Whitt, Matija Prodanovic, Adam Tokpah

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCW -11.5	UNCW -11.1	SELA +0.4	L UNCW covered
Total	137.5	138.3	Over 0.8	L Under
Projected score	—	SELA 63.6 · UNCW 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -6.5	SELA -6.0
1H total	64.8	60
1H projected score	SELA 29.2 · UNCW 35.7	SELA 33 · UNCW 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SELA LLWW	2-2	50%	2-2	2-2
UNCW LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: SELA away, as underdog; UNCW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA OUUU	1-3	25%	0-4
UNCW OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELAlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
UNCWlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

over 1under 3avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Wilmington

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

over 2under 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Louisiana @ UNC Wilmington

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

UNC Wilmington

SE Louisiana

UNC Wilmington