SE Louisiana Lions at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 3:00 PM ETHumphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St

Final

Closing lineMSST -27.5✓ SELA covered by 20.5

Closing total150.5Under by 7.5

Season records: SE Louisiana and Mississippi St
SELA	This season	MSST
0-3	Record	1-1
1-2	ATS	0-2
1-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SELA 62–87 MSST · ✓ MSST (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SELA	35	33	68
MSST	40	35	75

1st half: SELA 35, MSST 40 (MSST by 5). The model had MSST by 15.1 and a total of 69.9 (actual 75).

Team stats

SELA		MSST
24-66 36%	Field goals	25-55 45%
4-25 16%	3-pointers	9-24 38%
16-18 89%	Free throws	16-23 70%
33 10 off	Rebounds	43 9 off
13	Assists	18
12	Steals	9
3	Blocks	6
10	Turnovers	16
20	Fouls	13
34	Points in paint	26
9	Fast-break points	12

Players

SELA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jeremy Elyzee G	32	19	7	6	7-15	0-3
Jaiden Lawrence G	30	9	6	1	1-6	1-6
Isaiah Gaines F	24	8	5	4	4-6	0-1
Ethan Pickett G	19	2	1	0	1-4	0-2
CJ Booker PG	17	3	3	0	1-9	1-2
Bench
Jalen Forrest G	25	16	3	0	5-11	1-4
Seth Jones G	25	6	2	1	3-9	0-6
Makhi Myles F	13	5	3	0	2-5	1-1
Ubong-Abasi Etim C	11	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Ahmed Essahaty G	4	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Peter Hemschemeier, Cody Al-Naziat, Amir Chaney, Garrett Shoemaker, Kyle Edison

MSST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Shawn Jones Jr. G	32	17	6	4	7-10	3-4
Josh Hubbard G	31	15	4	4	5-12	2-7
Ja'Borri McGhee G	27	8	3	1	3-6	1-2
Quincy Ballard C	17	2	5	0	1-2	0-0
Achor Achor F	13	5	7	1	1-3	1-3
Bench
Jayden Epps G	17	10	1	2	3-6	1-4
Sergej Macura F	16	7	6	1	3-6	0-0
Jamarion Davis-Fleming F	15	0	5	2	0-0	0-0
Dellquan Warren G	13	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
King Grace G	10	8	0	1	1-3	1-2
Brandon Walker F	9	3	2	0	1-6	0-1

Did not play: Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Amier Ali, Gai Chol

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSST -27.5	MSST -25.1	SELA +2.4	W SELA covered
Total	150.5	149.2	Under 1.3	W Under
Projected score	—	SELA 62 · MSST 87.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -15.1	MSST -5.0
1H total	69.9	75
1H projected score	SELA 27.4 · MSST 42.5	SELA 35 · MSST 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SELA LLW	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
MSST LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: SELA away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA OUU	1-2	33%	0-3
MSST UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELAlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
MSSTlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SELA 0–1 MSSTMSST leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SELA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2024-25	SELA 59 @ MSST 80	MSST -25.5	SELA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

over 1under 2avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +11 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

over 1under 1avg +11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Louisiana @ Mississippi St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Mississippi St

SE Louisiana

Mississippi St