Kennesaw State Owls at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 7:00 PM ETAlico Arena · at FGCU

#148KENNKennesaw St102▲ winner

Final

#266FGCUFGCU100final

Closing lineFGCU -1.5✓ KENN covered by 3.5

Closing total160.5Over by 41.5

Season records: Kennesaw St and FGCU
KENN	This season	FGCU
2-2	Record	4-2
2-2	ATS	3-3
3-1	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KENN 82–84 FGCU · ✗ FGCU (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
KENN	45	35	22	102
FGCU	44	36	20	100

1st half: KENN 45, FGCU 44 (KENN by 1). The model had FGCU by 1.1 and a total of 77.7 (actual 89).

Team stats

KENN		FGCU
32-63 51%	Field goals	31-69 45%
9-25 36%	3-pointers	10-25 40%
29-36 81%	Free throws	28-39 72%
45 13 off	Rebounds	35 12 off
12	Assists	13
5	Steals	12
3	Blocks	3
19	Turnovers	12
29	Fouls	26
46	Points in paint	34
19	Fast-break points	21

Players

KENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Simeon Cottle G	36	33	3	2	7-13	5-8
Kaden Rickard G	36	9	5	3	4-8	0-3
Braedan Lue F	34	19	8	1	7-11	1-4
Ramone Seals F	20	10	5	0	2-8	0-0
Perry Smith Jr. C	8	0	4	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Trey Simpson F	27	8	2	1	3-7	2-5
RJ Johnson G	27	11	3	2	4-6	1-3
Frankquon Sherman F	18	4	4	0	2-6	0-2
Amir Taylor F	11	3	4	0	1-2	0-0
Darius Washington III G	8	5	1	2	2-2	0-0

Did not play: Jaden Harris, Jamil Miller, Davin Cosby Jr., Dozie Onyirimba, Eric Holland, Nigel Thomas, Charles Stone, Brendan Tousignaut, Chase Clemmons

FGCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
J.R. Konieczny F	39	28	8	0	8-15	3-5
Rahmir Barno G	36	14	2	8	5-15	0-3
Michael Duax F	23	3	7	1	1-3	0-0
Tristen Guillouette C	19	1	1	0	0-3	0-0
Darren Williams G	16	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Jordan Ellerbee G	35	42	4	2	13-18	5-8
Rory Stewart F	29	3	3	1	1-6	1-4
Isaiah Malone F	10	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Jack Reddick G	9	2	0	1	0-1	0-1
Gabe Tanner F	9	5	2	0	2-3	1-2

Did not play: BB Washington, Evan Barlow, Brandon Dwyer, Matt McCarthy, Chase Konieczny, George Washington III

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FGCU -1.5	FGCU -2.0	FGCU +0.5	L KENN covered
Total	160.5	165.9	Over 5.4	W Over
Projected score	—	KENN 81.9 · FGCU 84

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FGCU -1.1	KENN -1.0
1H total	77.7	89
1H projected score	KENN 38.3 · FGCU 39.4	KENN 45 · FGCU 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WLWL	2-2	50%	1-0	0-1
FGCU LWWLW	3-3	50%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; FGCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2
FGCU OOUOU	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENNlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
FGCUlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KENN 4–1 FGCUKENN leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · KENN has won the last 3 meetings · KENN 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2023-24	KENN 74 @ FGCU 67	FGCU -2.5	KENN W
Jan 12, 2023-24	FGCU 75 @ KENN 78	KENN -6.5	FGCU W
Jan 21, 2022-23	KENN 65 @ FGCU 63	FGCU -2.5	KENN W
Feb 16, 2021-22	KENN 76 @ FGCU 82	FGCU -5	FGCU W
Jan 13, 2021-22	FGCU 53 @ KENN 77	KENN +4.5	KENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kennesaw St

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@FAMU	W 92-72	-11.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 16	vsUSF	L 89-108	+7.5	L −11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 24	vsRICE	W 89-84	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsORU	L 83-91	-8.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

+8.5

USF

L 89-108

−11.5

RICE

W 89-84

+0.5

ORU

L 83-91

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

−2.5

USF

L 89-108

+19.5

RICE

W 89-84

+13.5

ORU

L 83-91

+7.5

over 3under 1avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

FGCU

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@ILL	L 70-113	+29.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsGASO	L 94-95	-3.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 15	vsUTC	W 91-73	+1.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SAM	W 77-62	+5.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 24	vsORU	W 93-88	-11.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 181
Nov 25	vsRICE	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

−13.5

GASO

L 94-95

−4.5

UTC

W 91-73

+19.5

SAM

W 77-62

+20.5

ORU

W 93-88

−6.5

RICE

W 78-63

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

+22.5

GASO

L 94-95

+25.5

UTC

W 91-73

+11.5

SAM

W 77-62

−15.5

ORU

W 93-88

+27.5

RICE

W 78-63

−8.5

over 4under 2avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kennesaw State Owls at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kennesaw St

FGCU

Kennesaw St

FGCU