Rice Owls at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ETAlico Arena · at FGCU

#177RICERice63final

Final

#266FGCUFGCU78▲ winner

Closing lineFGCU -5.5✓ FGCU covered by 9.5

Closing total149.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Rice and FGCU
RICE	This season	FGCU
1-5	Record	3-2
2-4	ATS	2-3
4-2	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RICE 76–80 FGCU · ✓ FGCU (65%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
RICE	24	35	4	63
FGCU	17	42	19	78

1st half: RICE 24, FGCU 17 (RICE by 7). The model had FGCU by 2.5 and a total of 73.0 (actual 41).

Team stats

RICE		FGCU
23-61 38%	Field goals	23-58 40%
4-23 17%	3-pointers	8-18 44%
13-20 65%	Free throws	24-33 73%
38 9 off	Rebounds	45 11 off
10	Assists	14
6	Steals	10
4	Blocks	1
19	Turnovers	16
24	Fouls	23
34	Points in paint	24
6	Fast-break points	18

Players

RICE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jalen Smith G	37	8	4	3	3-8	2-5
Trae Broadnax G	35	12	7	3	6-17	0-6
Nick Anderson G	34	10	4	2	1-8	0-4
Cam Carroll G	25	8	4	1	3-6	2-4
Jimmy Oladokun Jr. F	20	9	4	0	4-8	0-0
Bench
Andrew Akuchie F	29	4	7	0	2-4	0-0
Eternity Eguagie F	23	8	3	0	4-7	0-1
Bodey Howell G	10	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Jordan Williams G	7	2	1	0	0-1	0-1
Stephen Giwa C	5	2	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cole Andrews-Heitz, Dallas Hobbs, Trey Patterson, George Perkins, Evan Cochran, Presley Patterson, Aaron Powell

FGCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Michael Duax F	37	5	5	3	1-4	0-0
J.R. Konieczny F	36	19	6	0	5-12	1-3
Rahmir Barno G	36	10	4	3	2-11	0-0
Darren Williams G	21	5	2	0	2-7	1-3
Tristen Guillouette C	3	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Rory Stewart F	33	5	4	4	1-5	1-5
Jordan Ellerbee G	28	20	4	2	7-12	4-6
Isaiah Malone F	17	7	4	0	2-3	0-0
Jack Reddick G	9	2	2	1	1-1	0-0
Gabe Tanner F	5	5	1	1	2-2	1-1

Did not play: Brandon Dwyer, BB Washington, George Washington III, Evan Barlow, Matt McCarthy, Chase Konieczny

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FGCU -5.5	FGCU -4.5	RICE +1.0	L FGCU covered
Total	149.5	155.8	Over 6.3	L Under
Projected score	—	RICE 75.7 · FGCU 80.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FGCU -2.5	RICE -7.0
1H total	73.0	41
1H projected score	RICE 35.2 · FGCU 37.7	RICE 24 · FGCU 17

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE LLWLL	2-4	33%	2-0	2-1
FGCU LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; FGCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE OUOOO	4-2	67%	1-5
FGCU OOOUO	4-1	80%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICElast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
FGCUlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rice

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@ORE	L 63-67	+15.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsSFA	L 69-81	-2.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsETAM	W 71-64	-10.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 17	@TENN	L 66-91	+26.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 20	vsTAR	L 74-90	-4.5	L −20.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsKENN	L 84-89	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORE

L 63-67

+11.5

SFA

L 69-81

−14.5

ETAM

W 71-64

−3.5

TENN

L 66-91

+1.5

TAR

L 74-90

−20.5

KENN

L 84-89

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORE

L 63-67

−15.5

SFA

L 69-81

+0.5

ETAM

W 71-64

−11.5

TENN

L 66-91

+13.5

TAR

L 74-90

+17.5

KENN

L 84-89

+13.5

over 4under 2avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

FGCU

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +14.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@ILL	L 70-113	+29.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsGASO	L 94-95	-3.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 15	vsUTC	W 91-73	+1.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SAM	W 77-62	+5.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 24	vsORU	W 93-88	-11.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 181

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

−13.5

GASO

L 94-95

−4.5

UTC

W 91-73

+19.5

SAM

W 77-62

+20.5

ORU

W 93-88

−6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

+22.5

GASO

L 94-95

+25.5

UTC

W 91-73

+11.5

SAM

W 77-62

−15.5

ORU

W 93-88

+27.5

over 4under 1avg +14.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rice Owls at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Rice

FGCU

Rice

FGCU