Houston Christian Huskies at Bellarmine Knights: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ETKnights Hall · at Bellarmine

Final

#295BELLBellarmine74▲ winner

Closing lineHCU -2.5✓ BELL covered by 7.5

Closing total144.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Hou Christian and Bellarmine
HCU	This season	BELL
1-1	Record	1-4
1-1	ATS	3-2
0-2	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HCU 73–75 BELL · ✓ BELL (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HCU	38	31	69
BELL	35	39	74

1st half: HCU 38, BELL 35 (HCU by 3). The model had BELL by 1.4 and a total of 69.1 (actual 73).

Team stats

HCU		BELL
25-51 49%	Field goals	25-42 60%
10-23 43%	3-pointers	6-15 40%
9-24 38%	Free throws	18-20 90%
26 10 off	Rebounds	25 1 off
10	Assists	14
5	Steals	5
1	Blocks	3
8	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	38
5	Fast-break points	3

Players

HCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kylin Green G	38	24	6	2	9-11	5-7
Elijah Brooks G	35	17	6	3	7-13	0-0
Trent Johnson F	33	10	4	1	2-4	2-4
Demarco Bethea F	23	4	2	1	2-6	0-2
Mambourou Mara F	18	0	2	1	0-3	0-3
Bench
Ryan Bartley G	28	11	2	0	4-9	3-6
Nehikhare Igiehon F	11	0	3	1	0-1	0-0
Caleb Gaston F	6	1	0	0	0-1	0-1
D'Aundre Samuels G	4	0	0	1	0-2	0-0
Demari Williams G	4	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Brennen Byrd, Will Wilson, Obadiah Curtis, Bryson Monroe, Ahjany Lee

BELL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenyon Goodin G	36	7	3	1	2-6	0-2
Brian Waddell F	34	16	3	2	5-8	1-2
Jack Karasinski F	34	28	5	1	9-12	4-7
Sam Donald F	33	4	5	4	2-4	0-1
Myles Watkins G	17	4	1	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Michael Wilson Jr. G	16	7	2	0	3-5	1-2
Darrius Bolden G	16	2	1	3	0-2	0-1
Grant Whitaker G	14	6	2	2	2-2	0-0

Did not play: Jacob Wassler, Dominique Murphy, Ant McAfee, Tommy Clark, Grant Neal, Tyler Doyle, Donovan Hunter, Luke Anderson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HCU -2.5	BELL -2.5	BELL +5.0	W BELL covered
Total	144.5	147.6	Over 3.1	L Under
Projected score	—	HCU 72.5 · BELL 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BELL -1.4	HCU -3.0
1H total	69.1	73
1H projected score	HCU 33.9 · BELL 35.2	HCU 38 · BELL 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HCU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0
BELL LWLWW	3-2	60%	0-1	2-2

Venue/role: HCU away, as favorite; BELL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HCU UU	0-2	0%	1-1
BELL OOOOU	4-1	80%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HCUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
BELLlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hou Christian

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UCSD	L 60-78	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 13	vsULM	W 72-61	-8.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−10.5

ULM

W 72-61

+2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−3.5

ULM

W 72-61

−10.5

over 0under 2avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bellarmine

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UGA	L 59-104	+23.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 8	@KSU	L 71-98	+28.5	W +1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 15	vsWOF	L 86-94	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 180
Nov 19	@ND	L 79-86	+24.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	@CIT	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

−21.5

KSU

L 71-98

+1.5

WOF

L 86-94

−4.5

L 79-86

+17.5

CIT

W 70-58

+8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

+12.5

KSU

L 71-98

+0.5

WOF

L 86-94

+23.5

L 79-86

+14.5

CIT

W 70-58

−28.5

over 4under 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hou Christian @ Bellarmine

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Hou Christian

Bellarmine

Hou Christian

Bellarmine