Bellarmine Knights at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETPurcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame

#295BELLBellarmine79final

Final

#71NDNotre Dame86▲ winner

Closing lineND -24.5✓ BELL covered by 17.5

Closing total150.5Over by 14.5

Season records: Bellarmine and Notre Dame
BELL	This season	ND
0-3	Record	3-1
1-2	ATS	3-1
3-0	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BELL 66–88 ND · ✓ ND (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BELL	30	49	79
ND	37	49	86

1st half: BELL 30, ND 37 (ND by 7). The model had ND by 13.2 and a total of 72.4 (actual 67).

Team stats

BELL		ND
25-46 54%	Field goals	28-49 57%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	7-19 37%
22-27 81%	Free throws	23-32 72%
17 2 off	Rebounds	31 9 off
7	Assists	10
8	Steals	3
0	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	14
22	Fouls	23
24	Points in paint	36
10	Fast-break points	13

Players

BELL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brian Waddell F	34	18	5	1	6-10	1-3
Kenyon Goodin G	33	10	2	2	3-4	1-2
Jack Karasinski F	29	17	4	0	6-9	2-5
Sam Donald F	25	2	1	0	0-6	0-4
Tyler Doyle G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Michael Wilson Jr. G	29	17	0	0	4-6	2-4
Myles Watkins G	21	11	3	3	4-6	1-2
Grant Whitaker G	11	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Darrius Bolden G	10	2	0	1	1-2	0-1
Donovan Hunter F	4	2	1	0	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Jacob Wassler, Dominique Murphy, Ant McAfee, Tommy Clark, Grant Neal, Luke Anderson

ND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Markus Burton G	31	25	1	4	10-13	2-4
Jalen Haralson G	30	16	4	5	6-12	0-2
Braeden Shrewsberry G	29	7	4	0	2-5	2-5
Carson Towt F	29	12	11	0	4-6	0-0
Garrett Sundra F	10	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Cole Certa G	20	12	2	1	2-5	2-5
Sir Mohammed G	18	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Logan Imes G	13	6	2	0	2-3	1-2
Brady Koehler F	13	4	3	0	2-3	0-1
Kebba Njie F	7	4	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Matthew MacLellan, Luke Devine, Tommy Ahneman, Ryder Frost, Brady Stevens

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ND -24.5	ND -22.2	BELL +2.3	W BELL covered
Total	150.5	154.6	Over 4.1	W Over
Projected score	—	BELL 66.2 · ND 88.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ND -13.2	ND -7.0
1H total	72.4	67
1H projected score	BELL 29.6 · ND 42.8	BELL 30 · ND 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BELL LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2
ND WWLW	3-1	75%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: BELL away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BELL OOO	3-0	100%	0-3
ND OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BELLlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%
NDlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bellarmine

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −8.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +12.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UGA	L 59-104	+23.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 8	@KSU	L 71-98	+28.5	W +1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 15	vsWOF	L 86-94	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

−21.5

KSU

L 71-98

+1.5

WOF

L 86-94

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

+12.5

KSU

L 71-98

+0.5

WOF

L 86-94

+23.5

over 3under 0avg +12.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Notre Dame

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

over 2under 2avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bellarmine Knights at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bellarmine

Notre Dame

Bellarmine

Notre Dame