Wofford Terriers at Bellarmine Knights: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 2:00 PM ETKnights Hall · at Bellarmine

#248WOFWofford94▲ winner

Final

#295BELLBellarmine86final

Closing lineWOF -3.5✓ WOF covered by 4.5

Closing total156.5Over by 23.5

Season records: Wofford and Bellarmine
WOF	This season	BELL
1-2	Record	0-2
1-2	ATS	1-1
2-1	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WOF 77–73 BELL · ✓ WOF (65%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WOF	51	43	94
BELL	38	48	86

1st half: WOF 51, BELL 38 (WOF by 13). The model had WOF by 2.9 and a total of 70.3 (actual 89).

Team stats

WOF		BELL
28-51 55%	Field goals	30-59 51%
16-28 57%	3-pointers	5-19 26%
22-29 76%	Free throws	21-26 81%
29 6 off	Rebounds	28 9 off
25	Assists	11
4	Steals	8
6	Blocks	1
12	Turnovers	8
18	Fouls	20
24	Points in paint	50
9	Fast-break points	11

Players

WOF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cayden Vasko G	37	11	4	9	4-8	3-6
Nils Machowski G	35	28	1	4	5-11	4-8
Kahmare Holmes G	34	24	6	4	8-12	5-6
Luke Flynn G	33	16	6	4	4-8	3-6
Brian Sumpter F	18	2	4	2	1-2	0-0
Bench
Rex Stirling F	19	10	2	0	5-6	0-0
Chace Watley G	12	3	2	1	1-3	1-1
Brendan Rigsbee G	8	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Max Ortega G	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Callum Richard, Cannon Richards, Jayden Tyler, Alessandro Perotti, Grayson Collins, Davis Miller

BELL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brian Waddell F	36	23	6	2	9-13	1-1
Kenyon Goodin G	31	9	3	4	3-9	2-6
Sam Donald F	29	2	2	1	0-1	0-1
Jack Karasinski F	28	23	4	0	6-14	1-5
Tyler Doyle G	28	17	5	1	8-12	1-2
Bench
Michael Wilson Jr. G	15	2	4	0	1-4	0-2
Myles Watkins G	13	6	0	1	2-2	0-0
Donovan Hunter F	9	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Darrius Bolden G	8	0	0	2	0-0	0-0
Grant Whitaker G	3	2	1	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Tommy Clark, Ant McAfee, Dominique Murphy, Jacob Wassler, Grant Neal, Luke Anderson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WOF -3.5	WOF -4.4	WOF +0.9	W WOF covered
Total	156.5	150.1	Under 6.4	L Over
Projected score	—	WOF 77.3 · BELL 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WOF -2.9	WOF -13.0
1H total	70.3	89
1H projected score	WOF 36.6 · BELL 33.7	WOF 51 · BELL 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WOF LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	—
BELL LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: WOF away, as favorite; BELL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WOF UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
BELL OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WOFlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
BELLlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wofford

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GMU	L 46-70	+14.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 8	vsMILW	W 86-76	+3.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 11	@AUB	L 62-93	+27.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GMU

L 46-70

−9.5

MILW

W 86-76

+13.5

AUB

L 62-93

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GMU

L 46-70

−24.5

MILW

W 86-76

+11.5

AUB

L 62-93

+2.5

over 2under 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bellarmine

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −10 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UGA	L 59-104	+23.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 8	@KSU	L 71-98	+28.5	W +1.5	168.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

−21.5

KSU

L 71-98

+1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

+12.5

KSU

L 71-98

+0.5

over 2under 0avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wofford @ Bellarmine

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Wofford

Bellarmine

Wofford

Bellarmine