Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Ohio State Buckeyes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 12:30 PM ETSchottenstein Center · at Ohio State

Final

#33OSUOhio State64▲ winner

Closing lineOSU -9.5✓ ND covered by 8.5

Closing total156.5Under by 29.5

Season records: Notre Dame and Ohio State
ND	This season	OSU
3-0	Record	3-0
2-1	ATS	1-2
2-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ND 76–85 OSU · ✓ OSU (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ND	34	29	63
OSU	31	33	64

1st half: ND 34, OSU 31 (ND by 3). The model had OSU by 5.3 and a total of 75.5 (actual 65).

Team stats

ND		OSU
24-51 47%	Field goals	19-50 38%
3-10 30%	3-pointers	7-23 30%
12-20 60%	Free throws	19-23 83%
36 7 off	Rebounds	28 4 off
8	Assists	12
6	Steals	6
1	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	10
21	Fouls	16
38	Points in paint	18
3	Fast-break points	0

Players

ND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braeden Shrewsberry G	32	11	4	0	4-7	2-3
Markus Burton G	30	14	2	1	3-14	0-1
Carson Towt F	29	8	12	2	4-5	0-0
Sir Mohammed G	25	8	2	2	4-8	0-2
Garrett Sundra F	20	5	2	0	2-3	1-2
Bench
Jalen Haralson G	26	13	2	3	5-10	0-0
Kebba Njie F	11	2	3	0	1-2	0-1
Logan Imes G	10	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Cole Certa G	8	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Brady Koehler F	7	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Ryder Frost F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Luke Devine, Matthew MacLellan, Tommy Ahneman, Brady Stevens

OSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bruce Thornton G	40	24	4	2	8-15	4-7
Devin Royal F	33	7	6	1	2-6	1-3
Christoph Tilly C	28	18	4	1	4-8	0-3
John Mobley Jr. G	25	9	0	2	2-10	2-5
Brandon Noel F	19	0	1	2	0-0	0-0
Bench
Amare Bynum F	20	4	5	1	2-5	0-2
Gabe Cupps G	15	2	2	1	1-3	0-2
Colin White F	9	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Ivan Njegovan C	9	0	1	2	0-1	0-0
Taison Chatman G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Josh Ojianwuna, Mathieu Grujicic, Myles Herro, Braylen Nash

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OSU -9.5	OSU -9.1	ND +0.4	W ND covered
Total	156.5	161.1	Over 4.6	L Under
Projected score	—	ND 76 · OSU 85.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OSU -5.3	ND -3.0
1H total	75.5	65
1H projected score	ND 35.1 · OSU 40.4	ND 34 · OSU 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WWL	2-1	67%	—	—
OSU LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: ND away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OOU	2-1	67%	3-0
OSU OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
OSUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Notre Dame

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +12.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

over 2under 1avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ohio State

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +10.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsIUIN	W 118-102	-33.5	L −17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 7	vsPFW	W 94-68	-24.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsAPP	W 75-53	-23.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

−17.5

PFW

W 94-68

+1.5

APP

W 75-53

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

+47.5

PFW

W 94-68

+2.5

APP

W 75-53

−19.5

over 2under 1avg +10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Ohio State Buckeyes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Notre Dame

Ohio State