SE Louisiana Lions vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 12:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · Neutral site

#252SELASE Louisiana76▲ winner

Final

Closing lineSELA -6.5✓ SELA covered by 1.5

Closing total141.5Over by 2.5

Season records: SE Louisiana and Gardner-Webb
SELA	This season	GWEB
0-5	Record	0-6
2-3	ATS	2-4
1-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SELA 78–68 GWEB · ✓ SELA (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SELA	25	51	76
GWEB	35	33	68

1st half: SELA 25, GWEB 35 (GWEB by 10). The model had SELA by 6.4 and a total of 68.3 (actual 60).

Team stats

SELA		GWEB
23-56 41%	Field goals	21-45 47%
5-28 18%	3-pointers	8-19 42%
25-32 78%	Free throws	18-25 72%
34 11 off	Rebounds	31 6 off
14	Assists	10
14	Steals	4
2	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	21
22	Fouls	27
32	Points in paint	22
15	Fast-break points	15

Players

SELA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaiah Gaines F	32	9	9	4	2-4	0-0
Jaiden Lawrence G	25	3	4	2	1-5	1-5
Jeremy Elyzee G	23	5	6	0	2-3	0-0
Ethan Pickett G	21	10	4	5	5-8	0-2
CJ Booker PG	18	0	1	1	0-4	0-3
Bench
Seth Jones G	19	18	1	1	5-13	2-9
Makhi Myles F	17	13	2	0	3-6	1-3
Jalen Forrest G	14	8	0	0	1-3	0-1
Kyle Edison G	12	4	4	0	2-4	0-2
Peter Hemschemeier G	9	2	0	1	1-3	0-2
Ahmed Essahaty G	5	1	0	0	0-1	0-0
Garrett Shoemaker F	3	3	1	0	1-2	1-1
Ubong-Abasi Etim C	2	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cody Al-Naziat, Amir Chaney

GWEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ace Talbert G	31	15	3	2	6-10	3-6
Colin Hawkins G	28	9	0	1	2-3	1-1
Curtis Williams III G	23	10	2	1	4-6	1-2
Jacob Hogarth F	21	3	6	3	1-3	0-0
Spence Sims G	14	0	2	1	0-4	0-3
Bench
Jacob Hudson G	26	13	3	1	5-10	1-2
DJ Jefferson G	18	7	2	0	2-6	1-4
NaVuan Peterson F	17	3	4	1	1-1	1-1
Julius Clark G	10	4	2	0	0-1	0-0
Jamias Ferere G	9	4	3	0	0-1	0-0
Ahmadou Ndiaye G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ashton King, Riek Riek, Isaiah Hicks, Paul Lindberg, Cameron Gales

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SELA -6.5	SELA -10.4	SELA +3.9	W SELA covered
Total	141.5	145.7	Over 4.2	W Over
Projected score	—	SELA 78 · GWEB 67.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SELA -6.4	GWEB -10.0
1H total	68.3	60
1H projected score	SELA 37.3 · GWEB 30.9	SELA 25 · GWEB 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SELA LLWWL	2-3	40%	—	—
GWEB LWLLL	2-4	33%	0-1	2-4

Venue/role: SELA neutral site, as favorite; GWEB neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA OUUUU	1-4	20%	0-5
GWEB OOUOU	3-3	50%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELAlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%
GWEBlast 6	0-6 0%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SELA 0–1 GWEBGWEB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SELA 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2024-25	SELA 69 vs GWEB 73	GWEB -3.5	GWEB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −8.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

over 1under 4avg −8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gardner-Webb

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −8.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 26	vsNAVY	L 51-84	+10.5	L −22.5	153.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−22.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−18.5

over 3under 3avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Louisiana Lions vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Gardner-Webb

SE Louisiana

Gardner-Webb