Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at DePaul Blue Demons: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETWintrust Arena · at DePaul

Final

#66DEPDePaul93▲ winner

Closing lineDEP -21.5✓ DEP covered by 9.5

Closing total155.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Gardner-Webb and DePaul
GWEB	This season	DEP
0-3	Record	2-2
2-1	ATS	2-2
2-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GWEB 67–86 DEP · ✓ DEP (95%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GWEB	24	38	62
DEP	48	45	93

1st half: GWEB 24, DEP 48 (DEP by 24). The model had DEP by 11.4 and a total of 71.8 (actual 72).

Team stats

GWEB		DEP
23-66 35%	Field goals	36-65 55%
8-26 31%	3-pointers	8-25 32%
8-15 53%	Free throws	13-16 81%
37 13 off	Rebounds	36 6 off
13	Assists	29
9	Steals	12
3	Blocks	3
18	Turnovers	14
13	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	48
12	Fast-break points	24

Players

GWEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ace Talbert G	31	10	3	4	3-6	2-5
Jacob Hogarth F	27	14	11	3	5-8	2-2
Jacob Hudson G	26	6	4	3	2-9	0-1
Curtis Williams III G	25	2	3	0	1-8	0-3
Julius Clark G	14	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
DJ Jefferson G	26	12	3	0	5-18	2-10
Spence Sims G	18	10	1	1	3-4	2-2
NaVuan Peterson F	17	4	6	2	2-8	0-2
Jamias Ferere G	9	2	1	0	1-4	0-1
Riek Riek F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Cameron Gales G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Paul Lindberg G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ashton King, Ahmadou Ndiaye, Colin Hawkins, Isaiah Hicks

DEP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Layden Blocker G	25	16	2	6	4-8	0-2
CJ Gunn G	24	18	2	1	8-13	1-4
Brandon Maclin G	21	2	5	5	0-4	0-2
Theo Pierre-Justin F	16	7	2	0	3-4	1-2
Fabian Flores C	12	11	5	2	5-8	0-0
Bench
Kaleb Banks F	24	16	4	1	7-9	1-3
NJ Benson F	21	6	5	3	3-4	0-0
RJ Smith G	20	6	2	4	2-6	2-5
Kruz McClure G	18	9	4	5	3-5	3-5
Ilija Milijasevic G	12	0	1	2	0-2	0-2
Khaman Maker C	6	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Nate Kasher G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jonas Johnson, Isaiah Medina, Amsal Delalic, Jeremy Lorenz

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DEP -21.5	DEP -19.1	GWEB +2.4	L DEP covered
Total	155.5	153.3	Under 2.2	W Under
Projected score	—	GWEB 67.1 · DEP 86.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEP -11.4	DEP -24.0
1H total	71.8	72
1H projected score	GWEB 30.2 · DEP 41.6	GWEB 24 · DEP 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GWEB WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1
DEP WLLW	2-2	50%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: GWEB away, as underdog; DEP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GWEB UOO	2-1	67%	0-3
DEP OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GWEBlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
DEPlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Gardner-Webb

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

over 2under 1avg +11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

DePaul

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −9.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHST	W 92-62	-24.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsSTO	W 72-64	-22.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	vsBUF	L 53-66	-18.5	L −31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 14	vsNU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+5.5

STO

W 72-64

−14.5

BUF

L 53-66

−31.5

L 79-81

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+10.5

STO

W 72-64

−11.5

BUF

L 53-66

−34.5

L 79-81

+14.5

over 2under 2avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at DePaul Blue Demons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Gardner-Webb

DePaul

Gardner-Webb

DePaul