East Texas A&M Lions vs Army Black Knights: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 2:00 PM ETBogota Savings Bank Center · Neutral site

Final

#288ARMYArmy67final

Closing lineETAM -2.5✓ ETAM covered by 14.5

Closing total143.5Over by 7.5

Season records: East Texas A&M and Army
ETAM	This season	ARMY
1-3	Record	0-5
3-1	ATS	3-2
1-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ETAM 74–73 ARMY · ✓ ETAM (55%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ETAM	46	38	84
ARMY	36	31	67

1st half: ETAM 46, ARMY 36 (ETAM by 10). The model had ETAM by 1.1 and a total of 69.0 (actual 82).

Team stats

ETAM		ARMY
27-54 50%	Field goals	22-56 39%
12-30 40%	3-pointers	9-30 30%
18-22 82%	Free throws	14-20 70%
34 6 off	Rebounds	35 11 off
14	Assists	9
9	Steals	2
4	Blocks	0
12	Turnovers	13
20	Fouls	19
28	Points in paint	26
6	Fast-break points	1

Players

ETAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Evan Phelps G	27	3	1	1	1-4	1-4
Gianni Hunt G	27	10	3	4	3-6	0-2
Josh Taylor F	24	8	2	0	3-7	0-2
Ronnie Harrison F	19	12	8	3	4-6	2-3
Vinny Sigona G	17	6	0	2	2-5	2-5
Bench
Damian Garcia G	21	20	2	1	7-11	4-6
Noah Pagotto F	19	8	1	0	3-4	0-1
London Fields G	19	5	8	2	1-4	1-4
Tay Mosher F	12	8	2	0	3-5	2-3
Michael Folarin F	10	4	3	0	0-2	0-0
Alex McCray G	5	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Chris Adlam, Kamren Robinson, Mykol Sanchez-Vega, Parker Whisenhunt, Kollin Tolbert

ARMY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jacen Holloway F	31	5	3	2	2-8	0-1
Ryan Curry G	29	10	3	3	3-9	2-7
Kevin McCarthy G	27	12	4	1	4-9	4-8
Tate Laczkowski F	19	4	3	0	2-3	0-0
Jorn Everson F	13	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Bench
Jackson Furman G	17	5	0	1	2-8	1-6
Jaxson Bell G	13	5	3	0	2-6	1-3
Joshua Eli F	12	9	2	0	3-3	0-0
Alex Engro G	8	2	2	0	0-0	0-0
Dillon Watt G	6	6	0	1	1-1	0-0
Dylan Murans F	5	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Jackson Mayo G	5	4	1	0	1-2	1-2
Jahaan Green G	4	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Dylan Benner F	4	1	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dayon Polk G	4	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Brendon O'Keefe G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Nnaemeka Ikechi, Chanse Perkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ETAM -2.5	ETAM -1.5	ARMY +1.0	L ETAM covered
Total	143.5	147.3	Over 3.8	W Over
Projected score	—	ETAM 74.4 · ARMY 72.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ETAM -1.1	ETAM -10.0
1H total	69.0	82
1H projected score	ETAM 35 · ARMY 34	ETAM 46 · ARMY 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ETAM WLWW	3-1	75%	—	1-0
ARMY WLLWW	3-2	60%	—	3-2

Venue/role: ETAM neutral site, as favorite; ARMY neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ETAM UOUU	1-3	25%	1-3
ARMY OOUUO	3-2	60%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ETAMlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%
ARMYlast 5	0-5 0%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

East Texas A&M

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@UNM	L 54-76	+22.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 10	@HAW	L 74-100	+18.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 174
Nov 14	@RICE	L 64-71	+10.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 24	@FDU	W 70-65	-3.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

L 54-76

+0.5

HAW

L 74-100

−7.5

RICE

L 64-71

+3.5

FDU

W 70-65

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

L 54-76

−13.5

HAW

L 74-100

+28.5

RICE

L 64-71

−11.5

FDU

W 70-65

−14.5

over 1under 3avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Army

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@STMN	L 76-83	+18.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsDUKE	L 59-114	+33.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsHARV	L 52-75	+6.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 18	@COR	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 21	@MRST	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+11.5

DUKE

L 59-114

−21.5

HARV

L 52-75

−16.5

COR

L 73-86

+4.5

MRST

L 65-76

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+7.5

DUKE

L 59-114

+20.5

HARV

L 52-75

−19.5

COR

L 73-86

−5.5

MRST

L 65-76

+8.5

over 3under 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Texas A&M Lions vs Army Black Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

East Texas A&M

Army

East Texas A&M

Army