Army Black Knights at Marist Red Foxes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETMcCann Arena · at Marist

#288ARMYArmy65final

Final

#236MRSTMarist76▲ winner

Closing lineMRST -12.5✓ ARMY covered by 1.5

Closing total132.5Over by 8.5

Season records: Army and Marist
ARMY	This season	MRST
0-4	Record	1-2
2-2	ATS	2-1
2-2	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ARMY 62–74 MRST · ✓ MRST (85%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ARMY	22	43	65
MRST	28	48	76

1st half: ARMY 22, MRST 28 (MRST by 6). The model had MRST by 7.0 and a total of 64.1 (actual 50).

Team stats

ARMY		MRST
22-58 38%	Field goals	30-68 44%
7-32 22%	3-pointers	5-24 21%
14-18 78%	Free throws	11-12 92%
36 13 off	Rebounds	40 15 off
8	Assists	16
4	Steals	7
2	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	9
15	Fouls	16
24	Points in paint	40
0	Fast-break points	12

Players

ARMY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Curry G	33	16	8	3	6-16	2-10
Tate Laczkowski F	29	4	8	2	2-6	0-3
Kevin McCarthy G	26	10	4	0	3-10	2-7
Jacen Holloway F	25	7	4	1	3-4	0-0
Jorn Everson F	24	4	2	1	2-7	0-3
Bench
Jaxson Bell G	22	8	1	1	3-5	2-3
Jackson Furman G	17	7	1	0	0-3	0-2
Dayon Polk G	10	0	0	0	0-3	0-2
Joshua Eli F	7	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Dillon Watt G	3	4	1	0	1-1	0-0
Dylan Benner F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dylan Murans F	1	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jahaan Green G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jackson Mayo G	1	3	0	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Alex Engro, Nnaemeka Ikechi, Brendon O'Keefe, Chanse Perkins

MRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Lewis G	32	12	7	2	5-11	0-1
Justin Menard G	32	8	5	6	4-10	0-4
Jadin Collins-Roberts G	30	12	5	3	4-6	0-2
Parby Kabamba F	20	2	1	0	1-4	0-3
Jaden Daughtry F	7	0	1	0	0-3	0-0
Bench
Myles Parker F	27	17	6	1	6-12	2-7
Rhyjon Blackwell G	24	10	5	1	4-12	2-5
Jason Schofield C	18	9	5	3	4-6	0-0
Trace Salton F	6	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Jordan Gabriel C	2	3	3	0	1-2	0-0
Antoni Vlogianitis G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Martin Kawa G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Tarik Watson, Ricky McKenzie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRST -12.5	MRST -11.9	ARMY +0.6	W ARMY covered
Total	132.5	136.7	Over 4.2	W Over
Projected score	—	ARMY 62.4 · MRST 74.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRST -7.0	MRST -6.0
1H total	64.1	50
1H projected score	ARMY 28.5 · MRST 35.5	ARMY 22 · MRST 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY WLLW	2-2	50%	2-0	2-2
MRST WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ARMY away, as underdog; MRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY OOUU	2-2	50%	0-4
MRST UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMYlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
MRSTlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ARMY 1–2 MRSTMRST leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MRST has won the last 2 meetings · ARMY 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2024-25	ARMY 88 @ MRST 91	MRST -7.5	ARMY W
Nov 6, 2023-24	MRST 71 @ ARMY 55	ARMY -0.5	MRST W
Nov 27, 2021-22	MRST 61 @ ARMY 65	ARMY -3.5	ARMY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Army

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@STMN	L 76-83	+18.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsDUKE	L 59-114	+33.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsHARV	L 52-75	+6.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 18	@COR	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+11.5

DUKE

L 59-114

−21.5

HARV

L 52-75

−16.5

COR

L 73-86

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+7.5

DUKE

L 59-114

+20.5

HARV

L 52-75

−19.5

COR

L 73-86

−5.5

over 2under 2avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marist

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −13.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@XAV	L 62-66	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 9	@DART	W 75-56	+1.5	W +20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsHARV	L 54-56	-6.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 110

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

+8.5

DART

W 75-56

+20.5

HARV

L 54-56

−8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

−11.5

DART

W 75-56

−7.5

HARV

L 54-56

−20.5

over 0under 3avg −13.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Army @ Marist

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Army

Marist

Army

Marist