Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Canisius Golden Griffins: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETKoessler Athletic Center · at Canisius

#364UMESMD Eastern57final

Final

#359CANCanisius60▲ winner

Closing lineCAN -3.5✓ UMES covered by 0.5

Closing total128.5Under by 11.5

Season records: MD Eastern and Canisius
UMES	This season	CAN
1-4	Record	1-3
3-2	ATS	2-2
1-4	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UMES 67–67 CAN · ✗ UMES (51%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UMES	20	37	57
CAN	26	34	60

1st half: UMES 20, CAN 26 (CAN by 6). The model had UMES by 0.3 and a total of 62.5 (actual 46).

Team stats

UMES		CAN
20-53 38%	Field goals	21-49 43%
9-27 33%	3-pointers	11-23 48%
8-12 67%	Free throws	7-10 70%
32 11 off	Rebounds	31 8 off
11	Assists	13
3	Steals	1
1	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	11
14	Fouls	16
16	Points in paint	14
0	Fast-break points	7

Players

UMES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joseph Locandro F	29	18	7	0	7-14	4-8
Michael Teal G	29	4	1	2	1-3	1-3
Levi Beckwith SF	25	7	4	1	2-5	1-2
Zion Obanla G	23	4	4	1	2-7	0-1
Jaden Cooper G	22	0	3	1	0-4	0-4
Bench
Justin Monden G	26	10	0	4	3-8	2-6
Trey Brown G	18	5	2	0	2-4	1-2
Dorion Staples F	12	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Christopher Flippin PF	11	7	8	1	3-6	0-0
Maurio Hanson Jr. F	5	2	2	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Javoy Thompson, Jaden Johnson, Devin Thomas, Maurice Vassel, Trey Hall

CAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bryan Ndjonga F	32	14	4	2	5-11	3-4
Kahlil Singleton G	31	5	3	1	2-9	1-5
Mike Evbagharu G	29	6	8	3	1-6	0-1
Myles Wilmoth F	22	9	6	1	3-6	1-2
Javantae Edwards G	9	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Bench
Anthony Benard G	28	8	1	5	3-4	2-2
Max Jusianiec G	23	8	1	0	3-4	2-3
Evan van der Plas F	13	4	3	0	2-4	0-2
Brendan Oliver F	8	3	1	1	1-3	1-2
King Ijeoma F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Chris Kumu G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Zach Christian, Trevor Augustine, Andreo Ash, Nicco DiGiulio, Marcus Niblack

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CAN -3.5	UMES -0.2	UMES +3.7	W UMES covered
Total	128.5	133.4	Over 4.9	L Under
Projected score	—	UMES 66.8 · CAN 66.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UMES -0.3	CAN -6.0
1H total	62.5	46
1H projected score	UMES 31.4 · CAN 31.1	UMES 20 · CAN 26

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UMES WLWLW	3-2	60%	3-2	3-2
CAN LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: UMES away, as underdog; CAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UMES UUUUO	1-4	20%	1-4
CAN UOUU	1-3	25%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UMESlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
CANlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

MD Eastern

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GT	L 52-56	+28.5	W +24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 5	@UGA	L 29-94	+33.5	L −31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 11	@NEB	L 50-69	+35.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 14	@CREI	L 45-84	+33.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 18	@LONG	W 83-82	+17.5	W +18.5	138.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 52-56

+24.5

UGA

L 29-94

−31.5

NEB

L 50-69

+16.5

CREI

L 45-84

−5.5

LONG

W 83-82

+18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 52-56

−31.5

UGA

L 29-94

−19.5

NEB

L 50-69

−27.5

CREI

L 45-84

−6.5

LONG

W 83-82

+26.5

over 1under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Canisius

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DAY	L 48-88	+25.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	@SBU	L 70-89	+21.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMERC	W 58-55	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 17	@HPU	L 50-93	+23.5	L −19.5	152.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−14.5

SBU

L 70-89

+2.5

MERC

W 58-55

+4.5

HPU

L 50-93

−19.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−6.5

SBU

L 70-89

+22.5

MERC

W 58-55

−22.5

HPU

L 50-93

−9.5

over 1under 3avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Canisius Golden Griffins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

MD Eastern

Canisius

MD Eastern

Canisius