Charleston Southern Buccaneers at East Carolina Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum · at East Carolina

#326CHSOCharleston So77▲ winner

Final

Closing lineECU -13.5✓ CHSO covered by 25.5

Closing total157.5Under by 15.5

Season records: Charleston So and East Carolina
CHSO	This season	ECU
2-3	Record	1-2
2-3	ATS	0-3
4-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CHSO 74–86 ECU · ✗ ECU (86%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CHSO	37	40	77
ECU	30	35	65

1st half: CHSO 37, ECU 30 (CHSO by 7). The model had ECU by 7.2 and a total of 74.5 (actual 67).

Team stats

CHSO		ECU
26-60 43%	Field goals	25-60 42%
15-34 44%	3-pointers	2-11 18%
10-13 77%	Free throws	13-24 54%
31 5 off	Rebounds	38 10 off
17	Assists	9
5	Steals	4
3	Blocks	5
9	Turnovers	10
23	Fouls	14
20	Points in paint	44
13	Fast-break points	6

Players

CHSO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Luke Williams G	34	13	2	6	5-13	3-7
A'lahn Sumler G	27	8	3	1	3-5	1-1
Armari Carraway G	24	3	2	1	1-7	1-7
Nate Brafford F	21	9	1	2	3-5	3-5
Reis Jones F	10	7	1	1	2-4	0-0
Bench
Brycen Blaine G	32	23	12	1	7-17	4-8
Trent Coleman F	17	3	4	2	1-2	1-2
Lase Olalere F	16	3	3	1	1-2	0-0
Jesse Hafemeister F	10	5	2	1	2-4	1-3
Jacob Taylor G	9	3	0	1	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Easton Hupp, AJ Gladieux, Jaquias Franklin, Kaleb Lofton, Devin Brafford, Anthony Gause

ECU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Giovanni Emejuru C	36	18	12	0	5-11	0-0
Jordan Riley G	36	15	7	2	7-15	0-0
Tybo Bailey G	34	12	2	1	5-11	2-7
Corey Caulker G	31	9	2	3	3-11	0-1
Eli DeLaurier C	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Mbeng G	29	2	1	3	1-2	0-1
Luke Davis F	18	5	7	0	2-4	0-1
Reid Cason F	6	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Vito Perkovic F	3	0	1	0	0-3	0-1

Did not play: Ladontae Felton, Grant Smith, Patrick D'Arcy, Jake Baker, Daithi Quinn, Jayshayne Woodard, Trevion LaBeaux

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ECU -13.5	ECU -12.2	CHSO +1.3	W CHSO covered
Total	157.5	159.1	Over 1.6	L Under
Projected score	—	CHSO 73.5 · ECU 85.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ECU -7.2	CHSO -7.0
1H total	74.5	67
1H projected score	CHSO 33.7 · ECU 40.9	CHSO 37 · ECU 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHSO LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-3
ECU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CHSO away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHSO OOUOO	4-1	80%	2-3
ECU OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHSOlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
ECUlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Charleston So

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +8.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VT	L 67-98	+18.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 10	@CIT	W 96-86	-2.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 13	@AAMU	L 64-68	+1.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 14	vsLIN	L 77-83	+2.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsIUIN	W 103-91	+1.5	W +13.5	188.5	O 194

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 67-98

−12.5

CIT

W 96-86

+7.5

AAMU

L 64-68

−2.5

LIN

L 77-83

−3.5

IUIN

W 103-91

+13.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 67-98

+18.5

CIT

W 96-86

+36.5

AAMU

L 64-68

−20.5

LIN

L 77-83

+4.5

IUIN

W 103-91

+5.5

over 4under 1avg +8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

East Carolina

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −10.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +14.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

over 2under 1avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Charleston So @ East Carolina

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Charleston So

East Carolina

Charleston So

East Carolina