NC State Wolfpack vs Boise State Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 2:30 PM ETLahaina Civic Center · Neutral site

#48NCSUNC State AP #2381▲ winner

Final

#86BOISBoise St70final

Closing lineNCSU -6.5✓ NCSU covered by 4.5

Closing total152.5Under by 1.5

Season records: NC State and Boise St
NCSU	This season	BOIS
4-1	Record	4-1
3-2	ATS	3-2
4-1	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NCSU 77–74 BOIS · ✓ NCSU (60%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NCSU	34	47	81
BOIS	28	42	70

1st half: NCSU 34, BOIS 28 (NCSU by 6). The model had NCSU by 2.0 and a total of 70.8 (actual 62).

Team stats

NCSU		BOIS
27-54 50%	Field goals	19-56 34%
9-21 43%	3-pointers	11-33 33%
18-23 78%	Free throws	21-32 66%
36 7 off	Rebounds	38 14 off
15	Assists	11
13	Steals	2
7	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	15
26	Fouls	18
26	Points in paint	14
20	Fast-break points	8

Players

NCSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ven-Allen Lubin F	33	11	12	0	4-8	0-1
Tre Holloman G	32	8	4	4	2-5	2-2
Darrion Williams F	30	16	3	1	7-13	2-5
Quadir Copeland G	22	8	3	3	2-5	0-1
Paul McNeil Jr. G	20	10	2	0	3-8	2-5
Bench
Terrance Arceneaux G	23	11	4	2	4-5	1-1
Matt Able G	21	9	3	2	3-7	1-4
Alyn Breed G	12	5	2	2	1-2	1-2
Musa Sagnia C	7	3	0	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jayme Kontuniemi, Zymicah Wilkins, Jerry Deng, Colt Langdon, Scottie Ebube, Jordan Snell

BOIS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javan Buchanan F	31	10	9	2	2-10	0-4
Dylan Andrews G	29	26	3	2	8-18	5-11
Andrew Meadow F	29	6	1	1	1-4	0-1
R.J. Keene II G	26	8	5	0	3-5	2-3
Drew Fielder F	26	5	6	3	1-4	0-1
Bench
Pearson Carmichael F	21	11	0	0	3-7	3-6
Aginaldo Neto G	20	4	3	2	1-4	1-4
Dominic Parolin F	10	0	5	1	0-2	0-1
Spencer Ahrens F	3	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Julian Bowie G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bhan Buom F	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rayzhon Bergersen, Noah Bendinger, Brennan Ramirez, Ethan Lathan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NCSU -6.5	NCSU -3.0	BOIS +3.5	L NCSU covered
Total	152.5	151.0	Under 1.5	W Under
Projected score	—	NCSU 77 · BOIS 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NCSU -2.0	NCSU -6.0
1H total	70.8	62
1H projected score	NCSU 36.4 · BOIS 34.4	NCSU 34 · BOIS 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NCSU WWWLL	3-2	60%	0-1	3-2
BOIS WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NCSU neutral site, as favorite; BOIS neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOOUO	4-1	80%	4-1
BOIS OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSUlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%
BOISlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC State

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +14.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNCCU	W 114-66	-31.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUAB	W 94-70	-19.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 12	vsUNCG	W 110-64	-30.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsVCU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 24	vsHALL	L 74-85	-7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+16.5

UAB

W 94-70

+4.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+15.5

VCU

W 85-79

−5.5

HALL

L 74-85

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+34.5

UAB

W 94-70

+1.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+20.5

VCU

W 85-79

−0.5

HALL

L 74-85

+15.5

over 4under 1avg +14.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boise St

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −12.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsUVU	W 101-77	-12.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 11	vsRGV	W 85-65	-16.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsMTST	W 62-58	-16.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 120
Nov 18	vsWICH	W 62-59	-9.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsUSC	L 67-70	+3.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+11.5

RGV

W 85-65

+3.5

MTST

W 62-58

−12.5

WICH

W 62-59

−6.5

USC

L 67-70

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+26.5

RGV

W 85-65

−11.5

MTST

W 62-58

−27.5

WICH

W 62-59

−29.5

USC

L 67-70

−18.5

over 1under 4avg −12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

NC State Wolfpack vs Boise State Broncos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

NC State

Boise St

NC State

Boise St