Montana State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 4:00 PM ETExtraMile Arena · at Boise St

#162MTSTMontana St58final

Final

#86BOISBoise St62▲ winner

Closing lineBOIS -16.5✓ MTST covered by 12.5

Closing total147.5Under by 27.5

Season records: Montana St and Boise St
MTST	This season	BOIS
0-3	Record	2-0
2-1	ATS	2-0
2-1	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MTST 66–84 BOIS · ✓ BOIS (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MTST	30	28	58
BOIS	35	27	62

1st half: MTST 30, BOIS 35 (BOIS by 5). The model had BOIS by 11.0 and a total of 70.1 (actual 65).

Team stats

MTST		BOIS
22-59 37%	Field goals	17-51 33%
8-26 31%	3-pointers	8-28 29%
6-11 55%	Free throws	20-22 91%
36 9 off	Rebounds	35 7 off
6	Assists	10
4	Steals	5
2	Blocks	1
9	Turnovers	8
19	Fouls	12
20	Points in paint	18
3	Fast-break points	9

Players

MTST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jed Miller G	35	7	2	1	3-13	1-8
Chris Hodges F	29	4	2	0	2-4	0-0
Patrick McMahon G	29	9	6	1	4-13	1-2
Christian King F	19	2	2	1	1-4	0-2
Cavin Holden G	19	3	3	0	1-4	1-3
Bench
Davian Brown G	25	16	4	1	5-11	3-7
Jeremiah Davis G	22	8	4	1	3-5	2-4
Jaden Steppe F	11	4	2	0	1-1	0-0
Waka Mbatch F	11	5	4	1	2-4	0-0

Did not play: Grayson Gaddis, Howie Keene, CJ Purdie, Calum Rutherfurd, Seth Amunrud, James Steward

BOIS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javan Buchanan F	32	19	9	0	5-11	2-5
Drew Fielder F	32	13	5	1	4-8	0-1
Dylan Andrews G	31	10	5	5	1-7	0-3
R.J. Keene II G	27	0	6	2	0-6	0-4
Andrew Meadow F	27	14	4	0	5-9	4-7
Bench
Pearson Carmichael F	17	6	2	0	2-6	2-6
Aginaldo Neto G	13	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Spencer Ahrens F	11	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Dominic Parolin F	6	0	2	2	0-0	0-0
Julian Bowie G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brennan Ramirez, Rayzhon Bergersen, Ethan Lathan, Bhan Buom, Noah Bendinger

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BOIS -16.5	BOIS -18.4	BOIS +1.9	L MTST covered
Total	147.5	149.6	Over 2.1	L Under
Projected score	—	MTST 65.6 · BOIS 84

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BOIS -11.0	BOIS -5.0
1H total	70.1	65
1H projected score	MTST 29.6 · BOIS 40.5	MTST 30 · BOIS 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTST WLW	2-1	67%	2-0	2-0
BOIS WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: MTST away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTST OOU	2-1	67%	0-3
BOIS OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSTlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
BOISlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Montana St

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@COLO	L 78-84	+11.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsDEN	L 73-75	-7.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 12	@STAN	L 68-77	+14.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COLO

L 78-84

+5.5

DEN

L 73-75

−9.5

STAN

L 68-77

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COLO

L 78-84

+13.5

DEN

L 73-75

+1.5

STAN

L 68-77

−3.5

over 2under 1avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boise St

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsUVU	W 101-77	-12.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 11	vsRGV	W 85-65	-16.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+11.5

RGV

W 85-65

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+26.5

RGV

W 85-65

−11.5

over 1under 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Montana State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Montana St

Boise St

Montana St

Boise St