Creighton Bluejays vs Iowa State Cyclones: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 2:00 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

#37CREICreighton60final

Final

#13ISUIowa State AP #1578▲ winner

Closing lineISU -9.5✓ ISU covered by 8.5

Closing total152.5Under by 14.5

Season records: Creighton and Iowa State
CREI	This season	ISU
3-2	Record	5-0
1-4	ATS	3-2
1-4	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CREI 72–82 ISU · ✓ ISU (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CREI	26	34	60
ISU	40	38	78

1st half: CREI 26, ISU 40 (ISU by 14). The model had ISU by 6.3 and a total of 72.1 (actual 66).

Team stats

CREI		ISU
22-58 38%	Field goals	32-65 49%
10-28 36%	3-pointers	5-14 36%
6-11 55%	Free throws	9-14 64%
34 11 off	Rebounds	39 13 off
18	Assists	15
5	Steals	10
2	Blocks	5
17	Turnovers	8
11	Fouls	13
20	Points in paint	52
17	Fast-break points	19

Players

CREI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Dix G	30	15	0	6	6-10	3-6
Jasen Green F	30	15	2	4	6-10	1-3
Owen Freeman F	23	6	9	2	3-4	0-0
Nik Graves G	21	0	2	0	0-8	0-4
Blake Harper G	16	0	2	3	0-5	0-3
Bench
Hudson Greer G	20	12	5	1	4-7	3-4
Kerem Konan F	13	1	5	0	0-2	0-0
Isaac Traudt F	13	10	2	0	3-4	3-4
Ty Davis G	11	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Fedor Zugic G	10	1	0	1	0-3	0-1
Austin Swartz G	10	0	1	1	0-4	0-2
Shane Thomas G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Aleksa Dimitrijevic, Josh Townley-Thomas, Liam McChesney, Jackson McAndrew

ISU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nate Heise G	39	8	5	6	2-3	1-2
Joshua Jefferson F	36	18	10	5	8-17	1-3
Killyan Toure G	31	20	4	1	8-14	1-3
Blake Buchanan F	31	12	9	0	6-11	0-0
Milan Momcilovic F	25	10	3	2	3-9	2-4
Bench
Jamarion Batemon G	15	0	1	0	0-3	0-2
Dominick Nelson G	14	6	1	0	3-6	0-0
Dominykas Pleta F	8	4	1	1	2-2	0-0
Eric Mulder F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Anthony Rise, Mason Williams, Cade Kelderman, Tamin Lipsey, Xzavion Mitchell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ISU -9.5	ISU -10.7	ISU +1.2	W ISU covered
Total	152.5	154.0	Over 1.5	L Under
Projected score	—	CREI 71.7 · ISU 82.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ISU -6.3	ISU -14.0
1H total	72.1	66
1H projected score	CREI 32.9 · ISU 39.2	CREI 26 · ISU 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CREI LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-2
ISU WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: CREI neutral site, as underdog; ISU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CREI UUUUO	1-4	20%	3-2
ISU UOOOO	4-1	80%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CREIlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	1-4 20%
ISUlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CREI 0–1 ISUISU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CREI 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 4, 2021-22	ISU 64 @ CREI 58	CREI -5.5	ISU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Creighton

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −8.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

over 1under 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iowa State

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +9.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFDU	W 88-50	-37.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 138
Nov 6	vsGRAM	W 102-62	-33.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 164
Nov 10	vsMSST	W 96-80	-5.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 17	vsSTO	W 96-57	-40.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Nov 24	vsSJU	W 83-82	-2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FDU

W 88-50

+0.5

GRAM

W 102-62

+6.5

MSST

W 96-80

+10.5

STO

W 96-57

−1.5

SJU

W 83-82

−1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FDU

W 88-50

−9.5

GRAM

W 102-62

+19.5

MSST

W 96-80

+25.5

STO

W 96-57

+6.5

SJU

W 83-82

+6.5

over 4under 1avg +9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Creighton Bluejays vs Iowa State Cyclones

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Creighton

Iowa State

Creighton

Iowa State